Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China

Intensity Analysis has generally been applied as a top-bottom hierarchical accounting method to understand regional dynamic characteristics of land use and land cover (LULC) change. Given the inconvenience of transition level in the detailed and overall presentation of various category transitions at multiple intervals, a novel transition pattern is proposed to represent the transition’s size and intensity and to intuitively identify the stationary mode of transition, which helps the transition level to connect to the mode with the process. Intensity Analysis was conducted to communicate the transition between LULC categories in Hengyang from 1980 to 2015. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was employed for multi-scenario projection from 2015 to 2045. From 1980 to 2015, 2005 was a significant turning point in the speed of LULC change in Hengyang, and the change rate after this time point was three times that before the time point. The gain of built-up and bare, and the loss of cultivated was always active. The reason for the large loss of forest is that forest comprises the largest proportion of Hengyang. The loss of cultivated and the loss of forest contributing to the built-up’s gain is much larger, but the mechanism behind the transition differed. A stationary targeting transition mode from cultivated to built-up in Hengyang was detected. The PLUS model confirmed that the area of forest, cultivated and grass will reduce, and the rate of decrease will slow down in the future, while water areas will slightly increase. Our work enriches the methodology of Intensity Analysis and provides a scientific reference for the sustainable development and management of land resources in Hengyang.