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Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling and the Prediction of Subsequent Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in a Coastal Area of China, the Su-Xi-Chang Region

Author

Listed:
  • Eshetu Yirsaw

    (College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    Department of Natural Resources Management, Alage ATVET College, Alage/Zeway 77, Ethiopia)

  • Wei Wu

    (College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    Research Center for Rural Land Resources Use and Consolidation, National and Joint Local Engineering, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Xiaoping Shi

    (College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Habtamu Temesgen

    (College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    Department of Land Resources Management, Dilla University, Dilla 419, Ethiopia)

  • Belew Bekele

    (College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    Department of Natural Resources Management, Assosa ATVET College, Assosa 242, Ethiopia)

Abstract

Monitoring the impact of current Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) management practices on future Ecosystem Services (ESs) provisioning has been emphasized because of the effect of such practices on ecological sustainability. We sought to model and predict the impacts of future LULC changes on subsequent changes in Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) in fragile environments undergoing complex LULC changes, Su-Xi-Chang region. After mapping and classifying the LULC for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010 using GIS and remote sensing, a Cellular Automata (CA)–Markov model was employed to model future LULC changes for the year 2020. ESV was predicted using the projected LULC data and the modified ES coefficients adopted by Xie et al. (2003). The projected results of the changes in LULC reveal that construction land expanded extensively, mainly at the expense of farmland, wetland, and water bodies. The predicted results of the ESVs indicate that water bodies and farmland are the dominant LULC categories, accounting for 90% of the total ESV. Over the study period, ESVs were diminished by 7.3915 billion CNY, mostly because of the decrease in farmland, water bodies, and wetland. A reasonable land use plan should be developed with an emphasis on controlling construction land encroachment on farmland, wetlands, and water bodies. The rules of ecological protection should be followed in LULC management to preserve ecological resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Eshetu Yirsaw & Wei Wu & Xiaoping Shi & Habtamu Temesgen & Belew Bekele, 2017. "Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling and the Prediction of Subsequent Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in a Coastal Area of China, the Su-Xi-Chang Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:7:p:1204-:d:104136
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