IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v112y2022ics0264837721005731.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulating urban growth affected by national and regional land use policies: Case study from Wuhan, China

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Xinxin
  • Wang, Haijun
  • Xiao, Fentao

Abstract

The urban problems have clearly incorporated into the global sustainable development agenda and the scientific urban expansion model has won credibility for urban research and policy evaluation. From a comprehensive perspective, there is still little research on land use policy adjustments facing the potential impact of urbanization. Six different data scenarios, combined with three methods, were used to simulate the temporal and spatial characteristics of urban land use from historical to future 40 years in the context of appropriate data. The results from our study confirm the direct iterate in the initial data. Furthermore, for the long-term simulation of Wuhan, traditional methods perform better than smart methods when simulating regional urban growth changes high precision in continuous iteration for a long period was identified in CAmod1, and the CAmod3 has the highest simulation accuracy in the short-term phase. The filling type was mainly on both sides of the Yangtze River (developed area), while, the edge expansion type was mainly around the administrative boundary of the study area. We also found that the development policies in China were biased towards coastal areas in the early stage. The increase of urban land in Wuhan was slightly lagging behind. Under the control of national and local policies, a significant increase (1995–2000), and only 0.01% increase (2000–2010) in urban area development were observed in Wuhan City, China. According to the forecast results, urban land will grow by 539.73 km2 in 2035, reaching up to 719.76 km2. Therefore, it is necessary to combine multiple methods to collect suggestions in urban planning and to include the factor of policy reference when predicting the changes in future. Reasonable urbanization not only effectively improves the land utilization rate, but also promotes the harmonious and sustainable development of regional economic society.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Xinxin & Wang, Haijun & Xiao, Fentao, 2022. "Simulating urban growth affected by national and regional land use policies: Case study from Wuhan, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:112:y:2022:i:c:s0264837721005731
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105850
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837721005731
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105850?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Xiangdong & Yuan, Ouyang & Xu, Zhao & Yin, Yanhui & Liu, Qian & Wu, Ling, 2021. "Did Zipf's Law hold for Chinese cities and why? Evidence from multi-source data," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Xiao-Peng Song & Matthew C. Hansen & Stephen V. Stehman & Peter V. Potapov & Alexandra Tyukavina & Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend, 2018. "Global land change from 1982 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7720), pages 639-643, August.
    3. Xia, Chang & Zhang, Anqi & Wang, Haijun & Liu, Jiafeng, 2020. "Delineating early warning zones in rapidly growing metropolitan areas by integrating a multiscale urban growth model with biogeography-based optimization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Xu, Gang & Zhou, Zhengzi & Jiao, Limin & Zhao, Rui, 2020. "Compact Urban Form and Expansion Pattern Slow Down the Decline in Urban Densities: A Global Perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Guzman, Luis A. & Escobar, Francisco & Peña, Javier & Cardona, Rafael, 2020. "A cellular automata-based land-use model as an integrated spatial decision support system for urban planning in developing cities: The case of the Bogotá region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Qu, Shijin & Hu, Shougeng & Li, Weidong & Wang, Hui & Zhang, Chuanrong & Li, Quanfeng, 2020. "Interaction between urban land expansion and land use policy: An analysis using the DPSIR framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    8. Wang, Jing & Lin, Yifan & Glendinning, Anthony & Xu, Yueqing, 2018. "Land-use changes and land policies evolution in China’s urbanization processes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 375-387.
    9. Xia, Chang & Zhang, Anqi & Wang, Haijun & Zhang, Boen & Zhang, Yan, 2019. "Bidirectional urban flows in rapidly urbanizing metropolitan areas and their macro and micro impacts on urban growth: A case study of the Yangtze River middle reaches megalopolis, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 158-168.
    10. Wu, Changyan & Huang, Xianjin & Chen, Bowen, 2020. "Telecoupling mechanism of urban land expansion based on transportation accessibility: A case study of transitional Yangtze River economic Belt, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Meng, Liting & Sun, Yan & Zhao, Shuqing, 2020. "Comparing the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 1975 to 2015: A case study of pioneer cities in China’s rapid urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Xinxin Huang & Gang Xu & Fengtao Xiao, 2021. "Optimization of a Novel Urban Growth Simulation Model Integrating an Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm and Cellular Automata for a Smart City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-25, February.
    13. Mustafa, Ahmed & Cools, Mario & Saadi, Ismaïl & Teller, Jacques, 2017. "Coupling agent-based, cellular automata and logistic regression into a hybrid urban expansion model (HUEM)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 529-540.
    14. Diogo, V. & van der Hilst, F. & van Eijck, J. & Verstegen, J.A. & Hilbert, J. & Carballo, S. & Volante, J. & Faaij, A., 2014. "Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 208-224.
    15. Kuang, Wenhui, 2020. "National urban land-use/cover change since the beginning of the 21st century and its policy implications in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    16. Zhou, Yang & Li, Xunhuan & Liu, Yansui, 2021. "Cultivated land protection and rational use in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    17. Xiao-Peng Song & Matthew C. Hansen & Stephen V. Stehman & Peter V. Potapov & Alexandra Tyukavina & Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend, 2018. "Author Correction: Global land change from 1982 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7732), pages 26-26, November.
    18. Tan, Shukui & Hu, Bixia & Kuang, Bing & Zhou, Min, 2021. "Regional differences and dynamic evolution of urban land green use efficiency within the Yangtze River Delta, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    19. Yılmaz, Merve & Terzi, Fatih, 2021. "Measuring the patterns of urban spatial growth of coastal cities in developing countries by geospatial metrics," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    20. Lai, Yani & Tang, Bosin & Chen, Xiangsheng & Zheng, Xian, 2021. "Spatial determinants of land redevelopment in the urban renewal processes in Shenzhen, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    21. Xu, Tingting & Gao, Jay & Li, Yuhua, 2019. "Machine learning-assisted evaluation of land use policies and plans in a rapidly urbanizing district in Chongqing, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    22. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Wang, Hongbin & Zhang, Chunxiao & Li, Jiayang & Lv, Yongqiang, 2018. "Interoperable scenario simulation of land-use policy for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 155-165.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kohima, Jennilee Magdalena & Chigbu, Uchendu Eugene & Mazambani, Malcon Liyali & Mabakeng, Menare Royal, 2023. "(Neo-)segregation, (neo-)racism, and one-city two-system planning in Windhoek, Namibia: What can a new national urban policy do?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Armands Auzins & Peter Brokking & Evelin Jürgenson & Peteris Lakovskis & Jenny Paulsson & Andis Romanovs & Jolanta Valčiukienė & Janis Viesturs & Kurt Weninger, 2022. "Land Resource Management Policy in Selected European Countries," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-32, December.
    3. Meng Wang & Aleksandra Krstikj & Huan Liu, 2022. "Planning Compact City in Rapidly Growing Cities—An Estimation of the Effects of New-Type Urbanization Planning in Hangzhou City," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, October.
    4. Zhuo Wenjun, 2023. "Circulation Expectations, Farmer Trust, and Farmers’ Contract Choice Behavior," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, August.
    5. Yanqi Zhao & Yue Zhang & Ying Yang & Fan Li & Rongkun Dai & Jianlin Li & Mingshi Wang & Zhenhua Li, 2023. "The Impact of Land Use Structure Change on Utilization Performance in Henan Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Siyu Miao & Yang Xiao & Ling Tang, 2022. "Urban Growth Simulation Based on a Multi-Dimension Classification of Growth Types: Implications for China’s Territory Spatial Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Yang & Zhong, Zhen & Cheng, Guoqiang, 2023. "Cultivated land loss and construction land expansion in China: Evidence from national land surveys in 1996, 2009 and 2019," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Wu, Bingfang & Fu, Zhijun & Fu, Bojie & Yan, Changzhen & Zeng, Hongwei & Zhao, Wenwu, 2024. "Dynamics of land cover changes and driving forces in China’s drylands since the 1970 s," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Xu, Tingting & Gao, Jay & Li, Yuhua, 2019. "Machine learning-assisted evaluation of land use policies and plans in a rapidly urbanizing district in Chongqing, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Xia, Min & Zhang, Yanyuan & Zhang, Zihong & Liu, Jingjie & Ou, Weixin & Zou, Wei, 2020. "Modeling agricultural land use change in a rapid urbanizing town: Linking the decisions of government, peasant households and enterprises," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Ai, Bin & Xie, Dixiang & Ma, Shifa & Jiang, Haiyan, 2022. "An EasyCA model with few steady variables and clone stamp strategy for simulation of urban growth in metropolitan areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).
    6. Xingbo Yin, 2022. "The influence of urbanization on vegetation carbon pools under a tele-coupling framework in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 4046-4063, March.
    7. Weijia Chen & Yongquan Lu & Guilin Liu, 2022. "Balancing cropland gain and desert vegetation loss: The key to rural revitalization in Xinjiang, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 1122-1145, September.
    8. Baoni Li & Lihua Xiong & Quan Zhang & Shilei Chen & Han Yang & Shuhui Guo, 2022. "Effects of land use/cover change on atmospheric humidity in three urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 577-613, August.
    9. Wei Fan & Xiankun Yang & Shirong Cai & Haidong Ou & Tao Zhou & Dakang Wang, 2024. "Land-Use/Cover Change and Driving Forces in the Pan-Pearl River Basin during the Period 1985–2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, June.
    10. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    11. Min Wang & Kongtao Qin & Yanhong Jia & Xiaohan Yuan & Shuqi Yang, 2022. "Land Use Transition and Eco-Environmental Effects in Karst Mountain Area Based on Production-Living-Ecological Space: A Case Study of Longlin Multinational Autonomous County, Southwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Xiaotong Wang & Jiazheng Han & Jian Lin, 2022. "Response of Land Use and Net Primary Productivity to Coal Mining: A Case Study of Huainan City and Its Mining Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Chen Ma & Runze Nie & Guoming Du, 2023. "Responses of Soil Collembolans to Land Degradation in a Black Soil Region in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-13, March.
    14. Liu, Yansui & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Reflections on China's food security and land use policy under rapid urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Zhihua Liu & John S. Kimball & Ashley P. Ballantyne & Nicholas C. Parazoo & Wen J. Wang & Ana Bastos & Nima Madani & Susan M. Natali & Jennifer D. Watts & Brendan M. Rogers & Philippe Ciais & Kailiang, 2022. "Respiratory loss during late-growing season determines the net carbon dioxide sink in northern permafrost regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Yuji Hara & Chizuko Hirai & Yuki Sampei, 2022. "Mapping Uncounted Anthropogenic Fill Flows: Environmental Impact and Mitigation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, November.
    17. Liwei Xing & Liang Chi & Shuqing Han & Jianzhai Wu & Jing Zhang & Cuicui Jiao & Xiangyang Zhou, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Wetland in Dongting Lake Based on Multi-Source Satellite Observation Data during Last Two Decades," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-17, October.
    18. Qing Wang & Yuhang Xiao, 2022. "Has Urban Construction Land Achieved Low-Carbon Sustainable Development? A Case Study of North China Plain, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.
    19. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Leblois, Antoine & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2023. "Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    20. Su Wu & Neema Simon Sumari & Ting Dong & Gang Xu & Yanfang Liu, 2021. "Characterizing Urban Expansion Combining Concentric-Ring and Grid-Based Analysis for Latin American Cities," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:112:y:2022:i:c:s0264837721005731. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.