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Urban Growth Simulation Based on a Multi-Dimension Classification of Growth Types: Implications for China’s Territory Spatial Planning

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  • Siyu Miao

    (College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
    Key Laboratory of Spatial Intelligent Planning Technology, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Shanghai 200092, China)

  • Yang Xiao

    (College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
    Key Laboratory of Spatial Intelligent Planning Technology, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Shanghai 200092, China)

  • Ling Tang

    (Dongguan Geographic Information and Planning Research Center, Dongguan 523129, China)

Abstract

One of the primary aims of China’s territory spatial planning is to control the urban sprawl of local municipals and prevent regional competition and the negative consequences on the environment—which emphasizes the top-down spatial regulation. Indeed, the traditional cellular automaton (CA) model still has limitations when applied to the whole administration area since it may ignore the differences among cities and towns. Thus, this paper proposed a CM-CA (clustering, multi-level logit regression, integrated with cellular automaton) framework to simulate urban growth boundaries for cities and towns simultaneously. The significant novelty of this framework is to integrate several urban growth modes for all cities and towns. We applied our approach to the city of Xi’an, China, and the results showed satisfactory simulation accuracy of a CM-CA model for multiple cities and towns, and the clusters’ effects contributed 74% of the land change variance. Our study provides technical support for urban growth boundary delineation in China’s spatial planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Siyu Miao & Yang Xiao & Ling Tang, 2022. "Urban Growth Simulation Based on a Multi-Dimension Classification of Growth Types: Implications for China’s Territory Spatial Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:2210-:d:994069
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    References listed on IDEAS

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