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Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways

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  • Daigneault, Adam
  • Favero, Alice

Abstract

Socio-economic and technological drivers will strongly shape the future of the global timber market, forest area and climate change mitigation potential, however impacts could vary widely across several plausible futures. This paper illustrates how Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) can be applied to forest sector modelling using a method that translates qualitative narratives into quantitative parameters and then applying them to a dynamic global timber model framework. Results indicate wide variations in estimates for key forest sector outputs across the five SSPs with largest impacts on wood prices and forest area. The price estimates have a strong correlation with the other results, as higher timber prices incentivize land to remain in forests, more intensive management, and greater roundwood harvests. Competing influences such as population growth, economic development, land use policy, and technological change could result in wide changes in forest area, ranging from −970 Mha to +840 Mha between now and 2105. Despite large variations across the SSPs, global forests are likely to remain a net carbon sink, with the average annual global forest carbon sequestration ranging from 1.8 GtCO2e/yr to 6.9 GtCO2e/yr. The results of our study, including sensitivity analysis, support developing policies directed towards expanding forest cover or curbing deforestation in an effort to increase forest carbon by focusing on effective ways to enhance technological change, promote sustainable economic development, improve land use protection, and shift consumer preferences towards longer-lasting wood products, which will all raise the relative value of forests across the globe.

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  • Daigneault, Adam & Favero, Alice, 2021. "Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:103:y:2021:i:c:s0264837721000259
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105302
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    Cited by:

    1. Junmin Wei & Manhong Shen, 2022. "Analysis of the Efficiency of Forest Carbon Sinks and Its Influencing Factors—Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Favero, Alice & Sohngen, Brent & Hamilton, W. Parker, 2022. "Climate change and timber in Latin America: Will the forestry sector flourish under climate change?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Baker, Justin S. & Van Houtven, George & Phelan, Jennifer & Latta, Gregory & Clark, Christopher M. & Austin, Kemen G. & Sodiya, Olakunle E. & Ohrel, Sara B. & Buckley, John & Gentile, Lauren E. & Mart, 2023. "Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Xiaozhe Ma & Leying Wu & Yongbin Zhu & Jing Wu & Yaochen Qin, 2022. "Simulation of Vegetation Carbon Sink of Arbor Forest and Carbon Mitigation of Forestry Bioenergy in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-18, October.
    5. Beims, Ramon Filipe & Arredondo, Rosa & Sosa Carrero, Dennise Johanna & Yuan, Zhongshun & Li, Hongwei & Shui, Hengfu & Zhang, Yongsheng & Leitch, Mathew & Xu, Chunbao Charles, 2022. "Functionalized wood as bio-based advanced materials: Properties, applications, and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Zhao, Jianheng & Daigneault, Adam & Weiskittel, Aaron & Wei, Xinyuan, 2023. "Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    7. Hongge Zhu & Yingli Cai & Hong Lin & Yuchen Tian, 2022. "Impacts of Cross-Sectoral Climate Policy on Forest Carbon Sinks and Their Spatial Spillover: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Karner, Katrin & Mitter, Hermine & Sinabell, Franz & Schönhart, Martin, 2024. "Participatory development of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Austria’s agriculture and food systems," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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