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Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming?

Author

Listed:
  • Alice Favero

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Robert Mendelsohn

    (Yale University)

  • Brent Sohngen

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

It is well known that the forestry sector is sensitive to climate change but most studies have examined impacts only through 2100 and warming of less than 4°C. This is the first timber analysis to consider possible climate change impacts out to 2250 and warming up to 11°C above 1900 levels. The results suggest that large productivity gains through 2190 lead to a continued expansion of the global timber supply. However, as carbon fertilization effects diminish and continued warming causes forestland to continue to shrink, warming above 8°C is predicted to become harmful to the forest sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn & Brent Sohngen, 2017. "Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming?," Working Papers 2017.40, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2017.40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote, 2020. "Evolving Integrated Models From Narrower Economic Tools : the Example of Forest Sector Models," Post-Print hal-02512330, HAL.
    2. Daigneault, Adam & Favero, Alice, 2021. "Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Daigneault, Adam & Baker, Justin S. & Guo, Jinggang & Lauri, Pekka & Favero, Alice & Forsell, Nicklas & Johnston, Craig & Ohrel, Sara & Sohngen, Brent, 2021. "How the Future of the Global Forest Sink Depends on Timber Demand, Forest Management, and Carbon Prices," CEnREP Working Papers 340059, North Carolina State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Daigneault, Adam J. & Baker, Justin S. & Favero, Alice, 2020. "A forest model inter-comparison project (For-MIP) to assess the future of forests under climate, policy and technological stressors," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304585, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Favero, Alice & Sohngen, Brent & Hamilton, W. Parker, 2022. "Climate change and timber in Latin America: Will the forestry sector flourish under climate change?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Baker, Justin S. & Van Houtven, George & Phelan, Jennifer & Latta, Gregory & Clark, Christopher M. & Austin, Kemen G. & Sodiya, Olakunle E. & Ohrel, Sara B. & Buckley, John & Gentile, Lauren E. & Mart, 2023. "Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. Zhao, Jianheng & Daigneault, Adam & Weiskittel, Aaron & Wei, Xinyuan, 2023. "Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; RCP 8.5; Forestry; Dynamic optimization; Timber market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

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