Male and female selection effects on gender wage gaps in three countries

A vast literature on gender wage gaps has examined the importance of selection into employment. However, most analyses have focused only on female labour force participation and gaps at the median. The Great Recession questions this approach because of the major shift in male employment that it implied. This paper uses the methodology proposed by Arellano and Bonhomme (2017) to estimate a quantile selection model over the period 2007–2018. Using a tax and benefit microsimulation model, I compute an instrument capturing both male and female decisions to participate in the labour market: the potential out-of-work income. Since my instrument is crucially determined by the welfare state, I consider three countries with notably different benefit systems – the UK, France and Finland. My results imply different selection patterns across countries and a sizeable male selection in France and the UK. Correction for selection bias lowers the gender wage gap and reveals a substantial glass ceiling with different magnitudes. Findings suggest that disparities between these countries are driven by occupational segregation and public spending on families.