IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v67y2020ics0301420719302284.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy evolution and effect evaluation of new-energy vehicle industry in China

Author

Listed:
  • Dong, Feng
  • Liu, Yajie

Abstract

As China is faced with the double dilemmas of environmental pollution and energy security, new-energy vehicles (NEVs) come with high expectations, which need to be guided by an “invisible hand”. To analyse the optimal functioning power of policies and determine the direction of future policy implementation, this paper utilizes the COPA framework (i.e., analysis from four dimensions of contents, outlook, power, and authorities) to analyse policy evolution in respect of the new-energy vehicle industry (NEVI). In addition, a quantitative table of policy power is designed to construct the policy effects in various periods. Furthermore, this paper employs threshold model and quantile regression model to explore the threshold effect of policy power on the policy implementation effects and the transformation of policy implementation effects at different development stages, respectively. The results are as follows. (1) The Chinese NEVI policy continues to attach importance to government-guided consumption and government-supported technical development, with the major issuing form still being “notices”. Although “moderate” industrial policies are adopted as the main policies, the issuance strength has been rising periodically, and the functioning strength has been maintaining a steady rise year by year. The non-definition of the competent authorities is one of the key factors that affect the development of the NEVI. (2) The policy power has a significant threshold effect on its functioning strength. When the policy strength exceeds the threshold value of 69, the effect of the policy will nearly double; thus, to promote the technological innovation of NEVs, it is necessary to formulate high-intensity policies. (3) The effect of industrial policy will differ greatly at different development stages. Along with the gradual formation of market orientation of the NEVI, the effect of industrial policies has weakened gradually. Properly reducing the subsidy of NEVs will achieve the optimal allocation of government resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Feng & Liu, Yajie, 2020. "Policy evolution and effect evaluation of new-energy vehicle industry in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s0301420719302284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420719302284
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101655?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhaohua Wang & Xiaoyang Dong, 2016. "Determinants and policy implications of residents’ new energy vehicle purchases: the evidence from China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 155-173, May.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    3. Xiaojia Wang & Chenggong Li & Jennifer Shang & Changhui Yang & Bingli Zhang & Xinsheng Ke, 2017. "Strategic Choices of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry: An Analysis Based on ANP and SWOT," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, April.
    4. Zhang, Lei & Qin, Quande, 2018. "China’s new energy vehicle policies: Evolution, comparison and recommendation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 57-72.
    5. Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur & Nicholas Z. Muller & Andrew J. Yates, 2016. "Are There Environmental Benefits from Driving Electric Vehicles? The Importance of Local Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3700-3729, December.
    6. Yang, Mian & Ma, Tiemeng & Sun, Chuanwang, 2018. "Evaluating the impact of urban traffic investment on SO2 emissions in China cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 20-27.
    7. Tan, Ruipeng & Tang, Di & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Policy impact of new energy vehicles promotion on air quality in Chinese cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 33-40.
    8. Cirillo, Cinzia & Liu, Yan & Maness, Michael, 2017. "A time-dependent stated preference approach to measuring vehicle type preferences and market elasticity of conventional and green vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 294-310.
    9. Zhang, Xingping & Liang, Yanni & Yu, Enhai & Rao, Rao & Xie, Jian, 2017. "Review of electric vehicle policies in China: Content summary and effect analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 698-714.
    10. Li, Yaoming & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Boyu & McLellan, Benjamin & Gao, Yuan & Tang, Yanyan, 2018. "Substitution effect of New-Energy Vehicle Credit Program and Corporate Average Fuel Consumption Regulation for Green-car Subsidy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 223-236.
    11. Carolyn Fischer & Winston Harrington & Ian W.H. Parry, 2007. "Should Automobile Fuel Economy Standards be Tightened?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-30.
    12. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    13. Yan, Xiaoyu & Crookes, Roy J., 2009. "Life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for road transportation fuels in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2505-2514, December.
    14. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & van Ommeren, Jos N. & Koster, Paul & Rietveld, Piet, 2016. "Not fully charged: Welfare effects of tax incentives for employer-provided electric cars," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-19.
    15. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "How much does financial development contribute to renewable energy growth and upgrading of energy structure in China?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 114-124.
    16. Ma, Shao-Chao & Fan, Ying & Feng, Lianyong, 2017. "An evaluation of government incentives for new energy vehicles in China focusing on vehicle purchasing restrictions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 609-618.
    17. Liu, Yingqi & Kokko, Ari, 2013. "Who does what in China’s new energy vehicle industry?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 21-29.
    18. Xu, Lei & Su, Jun, 2016. "From government to market and from producer to consumer: Transition of policy mix towards clean mobility in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 328-340.
    19. Yuan, Xueliang & Liu, Xin & Zuo, Jian, 2015. "The development of new energy vehicles for a sustainable future: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 298-305.
    20. Shangfeng Han & Baosheng Zhang & Xiaoyang Sun & Song Han & Mikael Höök, 2017. "China’s Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-25, April.
    21. Wu, Kang, 2014. "China׳s energy security: Oil and gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 4-11.
    22. Ma, Shao-Chao & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2019. "Willingness to pay and preferences for alternative incentives to EV purchase subsidies: An empirical study in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 197-215.
    23. Hao, Han & Ou, Xunmin & Du, Jiuyu & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "China’s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 722-732.
    24. Michael K. Lim & Ho-Yin Mak & Ying Rong, 2015. "Toward Mass Adoption of Electric Vehicles: Impact of the Range and Resale Anxieties," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 101-119, February.
    25. Sen, Burak & Noori, Mehdi & Tatari, Omer, 2017. "Will Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standard help? Modeling CAFE's impact on market share of electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 279-287.
    26. Liu, Zongwei & Hao, Han & Cheng, Xiang & Zhao, Fuquan, 2018. "Critical issues of energy efficient and new energy vehicles development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 92-97.
    27. Roy Rothwell & Walter Zegveld, 1984. "An Assessment Of Government Innovation Policies," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 3(3‐4), pages 436-444, May.
    28. Onat, Nuri C. & Noori, Mehdi & Kucukvar, Murat & Zhao, Yang & Tatari, Omer & Chester, Mikhail, 2017. "Exploring the suitability of electric vehicles in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 631-642.
    29. Stokes, Leah C. & Breetz, Hanna L., 2018. "Politics in the U.S. energy transition: Case studies of solar, wind, biofuels and electric vehicles policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 76-86.
    30. Schuitema, Geertje & Anable, Jillian & Skippon, Stephen & Kinnear, Neale, 2013. "The role of instrumental, hedonic and symbolic attributes in the intention to adopt electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 39-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Zhongcheng & Li, Xinyue & Xue, Xinhong & Liu, Yahuan, 2022. "More government subsidies, more green innovation? The evidence from Chinese new energy vehicle enterprises," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 11-21.
    2. Ye, Rui-Ke & Gao, Zhuang-Fei & Fang, Kai & Liu, Kang-Li & Chen, Jia-Wei, 2021. "Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: A system dynamics analysis of China's NEVs in the post-subsidy era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Han, Jing & Guo, Ju-E & Cai, Xun & Lv, Cheng & Lev, Benjamin, 2022. "An analysis on strategy evolution of research & development in cooperative innovation network of new energy vehicle within policy transition period," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Yongqing Xiong & Shufeng Qin, 2021. "Differences in the effects of China’s new energy vehicle industry policies on market growth from the perspective of policy mix," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(3), pages 542-561, May.
    5. Ou, Shiqi & Hao, Xu & Lin, Zhenhong & Wang, Hewu & Bouchard, Jessey & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven & Wu, Zhixin & Zheng, Jihu & Lv, Renzhi & Qi, Liang & LaClair, Tim J., 2019. "Light-duty plug-in electric vehicles in China: An overview on the market and its comparisons to the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 747-761.
    6. Jingnan Zhang & Shichun Xu & Zhengxia He & Chengze Li & Xiaona Meng, 2022. "Factors Influencing Adoption Intention for Electric Vehicles under a Subsidy Deduction: From Different City-Level Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, May.
    7. Wu, Zezhou & He, Qiufeng & Li, Jiarun & Bi, Guoqiang & Antwi-Afari, Maxwell Fordjour, 2023. "Public attitudes and sentiments towards new energy vehicles in China: A text mining approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Tan, Ruipeng & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Public perception of new energy vehicles: Evidence from willingness to pay for new energy bus fares in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 347-354.
    9. Hu, Zheng & Yuan, Jiahai, 2018. "China’s NEV market development and its capability of enabling premium NEV: Referencing from the NEV market performance of BMW and Mercedes in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 545-555.
    10. Zhang, Lei & Qin, Quande, 2018. "China’s new energy vehicle policies: Evolution, comparison and recommendation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 57-72.
    11. Li, Yaoming & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Boyu & McLellan, Benjamin & Gao, Yuan & Tang, Yanyan, 2018. "Substitution effect of New-Energy Vehicle Credit Program and Corporate Average Fuel Consumption Regulation for Green-car Subsidy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 223-236.
    12. Wang, Kunlun & Zheng, Leven J. & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Demand-side incentives, competition, and firms’ innovative activities: Evidence from automobile industry in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Weixing Liu & Hongtao Yi, 2020. "What Affects the Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles Financial Subsidy Policy? Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-15, January.
    14. Bansal, Prateek & Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Raj, Alok & Dubey, Subodh & Graham, Daniel J., 2021. "Willingness to pay and attitudinal preferences of Indian consumers for electric vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Tong, Zihao & Hubacek, Klaus, 2022. "Strategies for applying carbon trading to the new energy vehicle market in China: An improved evolutionary game analysis for the bus industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    16. Peng Yu & Jian Zhang & Defang Yang & Xin Lin & Tianying Xu, 2019. "The Evolution of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry from the Perspective of a Technology–Market–Policy Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
    17. Zhu, Lijing & Wang, Peize & Zhang, Qi, 2019. "Indirect network effects in China’s electric vehicle diffusion under phasing out subsidies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Fansheng Meng & Xiaoye Jin, 2019. "Evaluation of the Development Capability of the New Energy Vehicle Industry: An Empirical Study from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, May.
    19. Na Zhou & Qiaosheng Wu & Xiangping Hu, 2020. "Research on the Policy Evolution of China’s New Energy Vehicles Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.
    20. Zhao, Yuntong & Jian, Zhaoquan & Du, Yushen, 2024. "How can China's subsidy promote the transition to electric vehicles?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s0301420719302284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.