Simulation analysis of the spread of a supply crisis based on the global natural graphite trade network

In recent years, the application potential of graphite materials in new energy and new materials has gradually developed. Thus, graphite has become increasingly regarded as a necessary strategic resource for the development of new energy and has gradually been considered seriously by various countries. However, at present, an imbalance between the increased demand and tighter supply of graphite resources is very likely to lead to a supply crisis for graphite. To understand the transmission process and impact of this supply crisis in various countries and to identify countries with important statuses in the graphite trade, in this paper, we construct the global natural graphite trade network. We set each country as a source of crisis transmission. Then, a computer is used to simulate the spread of the crisis through a cascade failure process, and the influence of these source points is analyzed in the real network. The results show that China, the United States, Germany, and India, have larger impacts. Moreover, the scope of influence of a country is related to its region of the country in addition to its GDP and its export volume. Second, the entire cascade propagation process emerges with the diffusion characteristics with which it first begin to spread in the same region. Most of the directly infected countries are in the same region as the initial outbreak country. In addition, by simulating the changes in the avalanche size when China's graphite export volume declines by varying degrees, we find that China has a strong impact, and a small reduction in its export volume can affect the graphite trade in certain countries. Finally, based on differences in resource endowment, economic strength and the consumption in different countries, relevant policy suggestions are proposed for different countries.