IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0018443.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Kyu-Min Lee
  • Jae-Suk Yang
  • Gunn Kim
  • Jaesung Lee
  • Kwang-Il Goh
  • In-mook Kim

Abstract

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyu-Min Lee & Jae-Suk Yang & Gunn Kim & Jaesung Lee & Kwang-Il Goh & In-mook Kim, 2011. "Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0018443
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0018443
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0018443
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0018443&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0018443?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    2. R. Mantegna, 1999. "Hierarchical structure in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 193-197, September.
    3. Paul, Gerald & Sreenivasan, Sameet & Havlin, Shlomo & Eugene Stanley, H., 2006. "Optimization of network robustness to random breakdowns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(2), pages 854-862.
    4. Juan Camilo Bohorquez & Sean Gourley & Alexander R. Dixon & Michael Spagat & Neil F. Johnson, 2009. "Common ecology quantifies human insurgency," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7275), pages 911-914, December.
    5. Réka Albert & Hawoong Jeong & Albert-László Barabási, 2000. "Error and attack tolerance of complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 406(6794), pages 378-382, July.
    6. Okyu Kwon & Jae-Suk Yang, 2008. "Information flow between stock indices," Papers 0802.1747, arXiv.org.
    7. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices," Papers cond-mat/9905305, arXiv.org.
    8. A. Garas & P. Argyrakis & S. Havlin, 2008. "The structural role of weak and strong links in a financial market network," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 63(2), pages 265-271, May.
    9. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2010. "Financial Contagion On The International Trade Network," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 1072-1101, October.
    10. Antonios Garas & Panos Argyrakis & Shlomo Havlin, 2008. "The structural role of weak and strong links in a financial market network," Papers 0805.2477, arXiv.org.
    11. V. Zlatic & G. Bianconi & A. Díaz-Guilera & D. Garlaschelli & F. Rao & G. Caldarelli, 2009. "On the rich-club effect in dense and weighted networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 271-275, February.
    12. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kwon, Okyu & Yang, Jae-Suk, 2008. "Information flow between composite stock index and individual stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2851-2856.
    14. Charles P. Kindleberger & Robert Z. Aliber, 2005. "Manias, Panics and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-62804-5, December.
    15. R. Kinney & P. Crucitti & R. Albert & V. Latora, 2005. "Modeling cascading failures in the North American power grid," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 46(1), pages 101-107, July.
    16. Garlaschelli, Diego & Battiston, Stefano & Castri, Maurizio & Servedio, Vito D.P. & Caldarelli, Guido, 2005. "The scale-free topology of market investments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 350(2), pages 491-499.
    17. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    18. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    19. M. Serrano & Marián Boguñá & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 2(2), pages 111-124, December.
    20. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
    21. Caldarelli, Guido, 2007. "Scale-Free Networks: Complex Webs in Nature and Technology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199211517.
    22. M. Angeles Serrano & Marian Boguna & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web," Papers 0704.1225, arXiv.org.
    23. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2007. "The architecture of globalization: a network approach to international economic integration," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 38(4), pages 595-620, July.
    24. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyu-Min Lee & Jae-Suk Yang & Gunn Kim & Jaesung Lee & Kwang-Il Goh & In-mook Kim, 2010. "Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises," Papers 1011.4336, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    2. Dror Kenett & Shlomo Havlin, 2015. "Network science: a useful tool in economics and finance," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 14(2), pages 155-167, November.
    3. Assaf Almog & Rhys Bird & Diego Garlaschelli, 2015. "Enhanced Gravity Model of trade: reconciling macroeconomic and network models," Papers 1506.00348, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
    4. Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "The international-trade network: gravity equations and topological properties," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    6. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 155-178, April.
    7. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2017. "Networks of Value-added Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1291-1313, July.
    8. Zongning Wu & Hongbo Cai & Ruining Zhao & Ying Fan & Zengru Di & Jiang Zhang, 2020. "A Topological Analysis of Trade Distance: Evidence from the Gravity Model and Complex Flow Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Rosanna Grassi & Paolo Bartesaghi & Stefano Benati & Gian Paolo Clemente, 2021. "Multi-Attribute Community Detection in International Trade Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 707-733, September.
    10. Andrea Fracasso & Stefano Schiavo, 2009. "Trade-imbalances networks and exchange rate adjustments: the paradox of a new Plaza. The XIVth Spring Meeting of Young Economists (SMYE-2009), Istanbul, April 2009," Post-Print hal-01053278, HAL.
    11. He, Fang & Chen, Xi, 2016. "Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 158-170.
    12. Yong Tang & Jason Jie Xiong & Zi-Yang Jia & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2018. "Complexities in Financial Network Topological Dynamics: Modeling of Emerging and Developed Stock Markets," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-31, November.
    13. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2010. "The evolution of the world trade web: a weighted-network analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 479-514, August.
    14. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2010. "Complex stock trading network among investors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4929-4941.
    15. Das, Sai Saranga & Raman, Karthik, 2022. "Effect of dormant spare capacity on the attack tolerance of complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 598(C).
    16. Giorgio Fagiolo & Tiziano Squartini & Diego Garlaschelli, 2013. "Null models of economic networks: the case of the world trade web," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 75-107, April.
    17. Xu, Helian & Cheng, Long, 2019. "The study of the influence of common humanistic relations on international services trade-from the perspective of multi-networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 642-651.
    18. Matteo Chinazzi & Stefano Pegoraro & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2015. "Defuse the Bomb: Rewiring Interbank Networks," LEM Papers Series 2015/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9795 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9795 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Frank Schweitzer & Giorgio Fagiolo & Didier Sornette & Fernando Vega-Redondo & Douglas R. White, 2009. "Economic Networks: What Do We Know And What Do We Need To Know?," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04n05), pages 407-422.
    22. Caballero, Julián, 2012. "Banking Crises and Financial Integration," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4198, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0018443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.