IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eaiere/v15y2018i2d10.1007_s40844-018-0110-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade network reconstruction and simulation with changes in trade policy

Author

Listed:
  • Yuichi Ikeda

    (Kyoto University)

  • Hiroshi Iyetomi

    (Niigata University)

Abstract

The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing entropy based on local information about inward and outward trade. We show that the trade network can be successfully reconstructed using the proposed model. In addition to this reconstruction, we simulated structural changes in the international trade network caused by changing trade tariffs in the context of the government’s trade policy. The simulation for the FOOD category shows that import of FOOD from the US to Japan increase drastically by halving the import cost. Meanwhile, the simulation for the MACHINERY category shows that exports from Japan to the US decrease drastically by doubling the export cost, while exports to the EU increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuichi Ikeda & Hiroshi Iyetomi, 2018. "Trade network reconstruction and simulation with changes in trade policy," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 495-513, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eaiere:v:15:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40844-018-0110-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s40844-018-0110-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40844-018-0110-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40844-018-0110-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    2. Matteo Barigozzi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Diego Garlaschelli, 2009. "Multinetwork of international trade: A commodity-specific analysis," Papers 0908.1879, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
    3. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2011. "The World Trade Network," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1417-1454, August.
    4. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 155-178, April.
    5. Kyu-Min Lee & Jae-Suk Yang & Gunn Kim & Jaesung Lee & Kwang-Il Goh & In-mook Kim, 2011. "Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11, March.
    6. Kyu-Min Lee & Jae-Suk Yang & Gunn Kim & Jaesung Lee & Kwang-Il Goh & In-mook Kim, 2010. "Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises," Papers 1011.4336, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    7. Barigozzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Mangioni, Giuseppe, 2011. "Identifying the community structure of the international-trade multi-network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2051-2066.
    8. Tsuyoshi Deguchi & Katsuhide Takahashi & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2014. "Hubs and Authorities in the World Trade Network Using a Weighted HITS Algorithm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-16, July.
    9. Yuichi Ikeda & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2016. "Who buys what, where: Reconstruction of the international trade flows by commodity and industry," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 071, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    10. K. Bhattacharya & G. Mukherjee & J. Saramaki & K. Kaski & S. S. Manna, 2007. "The International Trade Network: weighted network analysis and modelling," Papers 0707.4343, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
    11. Garlaschelli, Diego & Loffredo, Maria I., 2005. "Structure and evolution of the world trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 138-144.
    12. Yuichi Ikeda & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2016. "Who buys what, where: Reconstruction of the international trade flows by commodity and industry," CARF F-Series CARF-F-393, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    13. D. Garlaschelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2005. "Structure and Evolution of the World Trade Network," Papers physics/0502066, arXiv.org, revised May 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xingxing & Li, Huajiao & Zhu, Depeng & Zhong, Weiqiong & Xing, Wanli & Wang, Anjian, 2021. "Research on global natural graphite trade risk countermeasures based on the maximum entropy principle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Yuichi Ikeda, 2019. "Special feature: Econophysics 2017: synergetic fusion of econophysics and other fields of science—Part II," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 181-182, June.
    3. Qiao Chen & Jianquan Cheng & Zhiqin Wu, 2019. "Evolution of the Cultural Trade Network in “the Belt and Road” Region: Implication for Global Cultural Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-23, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuichi Ikeda & Hiroshi Iyetomi, 2018. "Trade Network Reconstruction and Simulation with Changes in Trade Policy," Papers 1806.00605, arXiv.org.
    2. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2014. "Global Trade Imbalances: A Network Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03n04), pages 1-29.
    3. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 155-178, April.
    4. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Julian Maluck & Reik V Donner, 2015. "A Network of Networks Perspective on Global Trade," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Fan, Ying & Ren, Suting & Cai, Hongbo & Cui, Xuefeng, 2014. "The state's role and position in international trade: A complex network perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 71-81.
    7. Giorgio Fagiolo & Tiziano Squartini & Diego Garlaschelli, 2013. "Null models of economic networks: the case of the world trade web," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 75-107, April.
    8. Vivek Kandiah & Hubert Escaith & Dima L. Shepelyansky, 2015. "Google matrix of the world network of economic activities," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 88(7), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Leonardo Ermann & Dima L. Shepelyansky, 2015. "Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct world trade network," Papers 1501.03371, arXiv.org.
    10. Fraňková, Eva & Fousek, Jan & Kala, Lukáš & Labohý, Jan, 2014. "Transaction network analysis for studying Local Exchange Trading Systems (LETS): Research potentials and limitations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 266-275.
    11. Yang, Yu & Poon, Jessie P.H. & Liu, Yi & Bagchi-Sen, Sharmistha, 2015. "Small and flat worlds: A complex network analysis of international trade in crude oil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 534-543.
    12. V. Kandiah & H. Escaith & D. L. Shepelyansky, 2015. "Contagion effects in the world network of economic activities," Papers 1507.03278, arXiv.org.
    13. Hoppe, K. & Rodgers, G.J., 2015. "A microscopic study of the fitness-dependent topology of the world trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 64-74.
    14. L. Blázquez & C. Díaz-Mora & B. González-Díaz, 2023. "Slowbalisation or a “New” type of GVC participation? The role of digital services," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(1), pages 121-147, March.
    15. Bartesaghi, Paolo & Clemente, Gian Paolo & Grassi, Rosanna & Luu, Duc Thi, 2022. "The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 304-341.
    16. Yuichi Ikeda & Hidetoshi Takeda, 2020. "Reconstruction of Interbank Network using Ridge Entropy Maximization Model," Papers 2001.04097, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    17. Marcos Duenas & Rossana Mastrandrea & Matteo Barigozzi & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2017. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the International Merger and Acquisition Network," LEM Papers Series 2017/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Li, Yuke & Wu, Tianhao & Marshall, Nicholas & Steinerberger, Stefan, 2017. "Extracting geography from trade data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 205-212.
    19. Hübler, Michael, 2016. "A new trade network theory: What economists can learn from engineers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 115-126.
    20. Luca De Benedictis & Silvia Nenci & Gianluca Santoni & Lucia Tajoli & Claudio Vicarelli, 2014. "Network Analysis of World Trade using the BACI-CEPII Dataset," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03n04), pages 287-343, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade network; Entropy maixmization; Network reconstruction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eaiere:v:15:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40844-018-0110-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.