IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v299y2024ics0360544224012751.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk analysis and resilience assessment of China's oil imports after the Ukraine Crisis：A network-based dynamics model

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Yi
  • Wang, Jianliang

Abstract

Global oil trade integration while creating a platform for risk spread. This study established a two-stage model for risk spread and recovery, simulating the cascading impact of oil supply shortage risks. On this basis, an assessment of the resilience of China's oil imports is conducted. The results indicate that, during the risk spread phase, countries causing a significant negative impact on China's oil imports may not necessarily be China's primary import sources. The proportion of indirect losses in Chinese oil imports due to Canadian oil supply shortages accounted for more than 70 % of the total losses. The United States, Singapore, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Brazil repeatedly act as intermediaries in risk spread. For the recovery phase, swiftly restoration of China's initial imports needs to establish new trade relationships with other non-traditional partners through competition. The top three countries in terms of accumulated new trade relationships are Korea (21), Turkmenistan (13), and Mexico (4). Regarding resilience, when the risk originates from Saudi Arabia, China demonstrates the weakest risk resistance, followed by Russia and Iran. The results not only serve as an early warning for China on regional oil supply risks but also provide policy directions for securing oil stable supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Yi & Wang, Jianliang, 2024. "Risk analysis and resilience assessment of China's oil imports after the Ukraine Crisis：A network-based dynamics model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:299:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224012751
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131502
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224012751
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131502?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ouyang, Min & Wang, Zhenghua, 2015. "Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 74-82.
    2. Hao, Hongchang & Ma, Zhe & Wang, Anjian & Xing, Wanli & Song, Hao & Zhao, Pei & Wei, Jiangqiao & Zheng, Shuxian, 2023. "Modeling and assessing the robustness of the lithium global trade system against cascading failures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    3. Shikha Jha & Kensuke Kubo & Bharat Ramaswami, 2016. "International Trade and Risk Sharing in the Global Rice Market: The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Supply Shocks," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 162-182, March.
    4. Hao, Hongchang & Xing, Wanli & Wang, Anjian & Song, Hao & Han, Yawen & Zhao, Pei & Xie, Ziqi & Chen, Xuemei, 2022. "Multi-layer networks research on analyzing supply risk transmission of lithium industry chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Hongbo Cai & Yuanyuan Song, 2016. "The state’s position in international agricultural commodity trade," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(3), pages 430-442, September.
    6. Wang, Shuang & Jia, Haiying & Lu, Jing & Yang, Dong, 2023. "Crude oil transportation route choices: A connectivity reliability-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    7. Yu, Yu & Ma, Daipeng & Zhu, Weiwei, 2023. "Resilience assessment of international cobalt trade network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Hongbo Cai & Yuanyuan Song, 2016. "The state’s position in international agricultural commodity trade," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(3), pages 430-442, September.
    9. Maddalena Conte & Pierre Cotterlaz & Thierry Mayer, 2022. "The CEPII Gravity Database," Working Papers 2022-05, CEPII research center.
    10. Zhang, Dayong & Broadstock, David C., 2020. "Global financial crisis and rising connectedness in the international commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Nakhli, Seyyed Reza & Rafat, Monireh & Dastjerdi, Rasul Bakhshi & Rafei, Meysam, 2021. "Oil sanctions and their transmission channels in the Iranian economy: A DSGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Feng, Yanchao & Sabir, Saeed Ahmad & Quddus, Abdul & Wang, Jianxin & Abbas, Shujaat, 2024. "Do the grey clouds of geopolitical risk and political globalization exacerbate environmental degradation? Evidence from resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Wang, Xingxing & Li, Huajiao & Yao, Huajun & Zhu, Depeng & Liu, Nairong, 2018. "Simulation analysis of the spread of a supply crisis based on the global natural graphite trade network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 200-209.
    15. Wen Jun Tan & Allan N. Zhang & Wentong Cai, 2019. "A graph-based model to measure structural redundancy for supply chain resilience," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(20), pages 6385-6404, October.
    16. Yu, Yu & Ma, Daipeng & Qian, Yingmiao, 2023. "A resilience measure for the international nickel trade network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    17. Chen, Sai & Ding, Yueting & Zhang, Yanfang & Zhang, Ming & Nie, Rui, 2022. "Study on the robustness of China's oil import network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    18. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & Zhong, Weiqiong & Liu, Nairong, 2017. "The stability of the international oil trade network from short-term and long-term perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 345-356.
    20. Gong, Xu & Sun, Yi & Du, Zhili, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and China's oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    21. Chen, Zhihua & An, Haizhong & An, Feng & Guan, Qing & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Structural risk evaluation of global gas trade by a network-based dynamics simulation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 457-471.
    22. Feng, Yanchao & Hu, Jin & Afshan, Sahar & Irfan, Muhammad & Hu, Mingjun & Abbas, Shujaat, 2023. "Bridging resource disparities for sustainable development: A comparative analysis of resource-rich and resource-scarce countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    23. Kyu-Min Lee & Kwang-Il Goh, 2016. "Strength of weak layers in cascading failures on multiplex networks: case of the international trade network," Papers 1603.05181, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    24. Garlaschelli, Diego & Loffredo, Maria I., 2005. "Structure and evolution of the world trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 138-144.
    25. Ding, Yueting & Zhang, Ming & Chen, Sai & Nie, Rui, 2020. "Assessing the resilience of China’s natural gas importation under network disruptions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    26. Feng, Yanchao & Shoaib, Muhammad & Akram, Rabia & Alnafrah, Ibrahim & Ai, Fengyi & Irfan, Muhammad, 2024. "Assessing and prioritizing biogas energy barriers: A sustainable roadmap for energy security," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    27. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Hao, Xiaoqing & An, Haizhong, 2022. "Comparative study on transmission mechanism of supply shortage risk in the international trade of iron ore, pig iron and crude steel," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    29. Wei, Na & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    30. D. Garlaschelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2005. "Structure and Evolution of the World Trade Network," Papers physics/0502066, arXiv.org, revised May 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hao, Hongchang & Ma, Zhe & Wang, Anjian & Xing, Wanli & Song, Hao & Zhao, Pei & Wei, Jiangqiao & Zheng, Shuxian, 2023. "Modeling and assessing the robustness of the lithium global trade system against cascading failures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Yang, Weixin & Pan, Lingying & Ding, Qinyi, 2023. "Dynamic analysis of natural gas substitution for crude oil: Scenario simulation and quantitative evaluation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    3. Wang, Xingxing & Wang, Anjian & Zhong, Weiqiong & Zhu, Depeng & Wang, Chunhui, 2022. "Analysis of international nickel flow based on the industrial chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Yan, Jingjing & Guo, Yaoqi & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "The dynamic evolution mechanism of structural dependence characteristics in the global oil trade network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    5. Kang, Xinyu & Wang, Minxi & Chen, Lu & Li, Xin, 2023. "Supply risk propagation of global copper industry chain based on multi-layer complex network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    6. Hao, Xiaoqing & An, Haizhong & Jiang, Meihui & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2024. "Supply shock propagation in the multi-layer network of global steel product chain: Additive effect of trade and production," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Jin, Pengfei & Wang, Saige & Meng, Zheng & Chen, Bin, 2023. "China's lithium supply chains: Network evolution and resilience assessment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    8. Massimo Riccaboni & Stefano Schiavo, 2009. "The Structure and Growth of International Trade," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-24, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    9. Bartesaghi, Paolo & Clemente, Gian Paolo & Grassi, Rosanna & Luu, Duc Thi, 2022. "The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 304-341.
    10. Massimo Riccaboni & Stefano Schiavo, 2009. "The Structure and Growth of Weighted Networks," Papers 0908.0348, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2009.
    11. Ding, Yueting & Chen, Sai & Zheng, Yilei & Chai, Shanglei & Nie, Rui, 2022. "Resilience assessment of China's natural gas system under supply shortages: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    12. Wei, Na & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    13. Zhang, Yin-Ting & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2023. "Quantifying the status of economies in international crop trade networks: A correlation structure analysis of various node-ranking metrics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    14. Zhou, Xuanru & Zhang, Hua & Zheng, Shuxian & Xing, Wanli & Yang, Hanshi & Zhao, Yifan, 2023. "A study on the transmission of trade behavior of global nickel products from the perspective of the industrial chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Yuichi Ikeda & Hiroshi Iyetomi, 2018. "Trade Network Reconstruction and Simulation with Changes in Trade Policy," Papers 1806.00605, arXiv.org.
    16. Zirui Wang & Wanli Xing, 2022. "Study on the Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Global Uranium Resource Trade from the Perspective of a Complex Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    17. Li, Yingli & Huang, Jianbai & Zeng, Anqi & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Trade risk transmission of global cobalt industrial chain based on multi-layer network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Qiaowen Zhang & Benjamin Batinge, 2021. "A social network analysis of the structure and evolution of intra‐African trade," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 204-217, March.
    19. Zuo, Zhili & McLellan, Benjamin Craig & Li, Yonglin & Guo, Haixiang & Cheng, Jinhua, 2022. "Evolution and insights into the network and pattern of the rare earths trade from an industry chain perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Yu, Yu & Ma, Daipeng & Qian, Yingmiao, 2023. "A resilience measure for the international nickel trade network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:299:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224012751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.