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Trade risk transmission of global cobalt industrial chain based on multi-layer network

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  • Li, Yingli
  • Huang, Jianbai
  • Zeng, Anqi
  • Zhang, Hongwei

Abstract

In order to study the potential systemic risk transmission in cobalt trade, this paper combined the infectious disease model with complex networks to build a multi-layer network trade risk transmission model for cobalt trade based on the transmission of export restrictions and bilateral friction in a single country, in order to simulate the degree of impact of risk transmission in cobalt industry chain, identify key countries and risk transmission paths. The results show that multi-layer network risk transmission of global cobalt trade based on two communication forms has the characteristics of “robust and fragile”. In addition, the risk transmission situation based on bilateral frictions is mainly transmitted by core countries and direct contacts. The risk transmission based on the export restriction of a single country is mainly through direct contact, indirect contact and regional transmission. We also find that the multi-layer trade network of global cobalt trade can resist the bilateral frictional transmission mode better than the transmission mode of single country export restriction. The results can support policy makers to optimize the cobalt trade structure and mitigate the negative impact of trade disruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yingli & Huang, Jianbai & Zeng, Anqi & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Trade risk transmission of global cobalt industrial chain based on multi-layer network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:98:y:2024:i:c:s0301420724007050
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105338
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