IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v106y2023ics0966692322002423.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Our children cycle less - A Danish pseudo-panel analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rich, Jeppe
  • Myhrmann, Marcus Skyum
  • Mabit, Stefan Eriksen

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of cycling demand for the population of Denmark. Using pseudo-panels based on large-scale cross-sectional data, we analyse the temporal stability of cycling demand preferences for different age cohorts in combination with residential city sizes. Cycling demand is decomposed into two effects. Firstly, a population ’selection’ effect that explains the probability of being a cyclist, i.e. engaged in cycling activities. Secondly, the conditional demand for cycle mileage provided that the respondent is a cyclist. The joint probability model is estimated as a Gamma Hurdle model. The study reveals several empirical findings, of which three stand out. Firstly, overall cycling demand in Denmark over the period is in decline. Secondly, it is shown that this is mainly a selection effect. Hence, the main driver of the observed decline is essentially a shrinking cycling population rather than a decrease in trip distances for those who travel by bicycle. Thirdly, the decline is strongest for younger generations, particularly those residing outside the larger cities. With Denmark being an international forerunner for bicycling and with a cycling culture developed over many decades, we believe these findings can be relevant to mitigate similar long-term changes in other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Rich, Jeppe & Myhrmann, Marcus Skyum & Mabit, Stefan Eriksen, 2023. "Our children cycle less - A Danish pseudo-panel analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:106:y:2023:i:c:s0966692322002423
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2022.103519
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692322002423
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2022.103519?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bradley Efron, 2020. "Prediction, Estimation, and Attribution," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(530), pages 636-655, April.
    2. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Jackman, Simon, 2008. "Regression Models for Count Data in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i08).
    3. Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
    4. Rich, Jeppe & Vandet, Christian Anker, 2019. "Is the value of travel time savings increasing? Analysis throughout a financial crisis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 145-168.
    5. Hallberg, Martin & Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær & Rich, Jeppe, 2021. "Modelling the impact of cycle superhighways and electric bicycles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 397-418.
    6. Rico Krueger & Taha H. Rashidi & Akshay Vij, 2020. "X vs. Y: an analysis of intergenerational differences in transport mode use among young adults," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2203-2231, October.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    8. Bradley Efron, 2020. "Prediction, Estimation, and Attribution," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(S1), pages 28-59, December.
    9. Lewbel, Arthur, 1994. "Aggregation and Simple Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 905-918, September.
    10. Skov-Petersen, Hans & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Vedel, Suzanne Elizabeth & Thomas Alexander, Sick Nielsen & Rask, Simon, 2017. "Effects of upgrading to cycle highways - An analysis of demand induction, use patterns and satisfaction before and after," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 203-210.
    11. Paul J. Devereux, 2007. "Small-sample bias in synthetic cohort models of labor supply," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 839-848.
    12. Cragg, John G, 1971. "Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 829-844, September.
    13. Roger Collet, 2012. "Household car use in France: a demographic and economic analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 475-485.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Łukawska, Mirosława & Paulsen, Mads & Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær & Jensen, Anders Fjendbo & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2023. "A joint bicycle route choice model for various cycling frequencies and trip distances based on a large crowdsourced GPS dataset," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eakins, John, 2016. "An application of the double hurdle model to petrol and diesel household expenditures in Ireland," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 84-93.
    2. Manski, Charles F., 2023. "Probabilistic prediction for binary treatment choice: With focus on personalized medicine," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 647-663.
    3. Wongnaa, Camillus Abawiera & Kyei, Afrane Baffour & Apike, Isaac Akurugu & Awunyo-Vitor, Dadson & Dziwornu, Raymond K., 2021. "Perception and Adoption of Artificial Pollination Technology in Cocoa Production: Evidence from Ghana," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314939, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Beltran, Jesusa C. & Pannell, David J. & Doole, Graeme J. & White, Benedict, 2011. "Factors that affect the use of herbicides in Philippine rice farming systems," Working Papers 108769, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Bierkamp, Sina & Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Grote, Ulrike, 2021. "Environmental income and remittances: Evidence from rural central highlands of Vietnam," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    6. Lisette Ibanez & Sébastien Roussel, 2022. "The impact of nature video exposure on pro-environmental behavior: An experimental investigation," Post-Print hal-03847453, HAL.
    7. Angulo, Ana María & Barberán, Ramón & Egea, Pilar & Mur, Jesús, 2011. "An analysis of health expenditure on a microdata population basis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 169-180.
    8. Benjamin J. McMichael & W. Kip Viscusi, 2017. "The Punitive Damages Calculus: The Differential Incidence of State Punitive Damages Reforms," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(1), pages 82-97, July.
    9. Paulsen, Mads & Rich, Jeppe, 2023. "Societally optimal expansion of bicycle networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    10. Weishampel, Anthony & Staicu, Ana-Maria & Rand, William, 2023. "Classification of social media users with generalized functional data analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    11. Massimiliano Bratti & Alfonso Miranda, 2010. "Endogenous Treatment Effects for Count Data Models with Sample Selection or Endogenous Participation," DoQSS Working Papers 10-05, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, revised 10 Dec 2010.
    12. Elena Raptou & Konstadinos Mattas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2009. "Investigating Smoker's Profile: The Role of Psychosocial Characteristics and the Effectiveness of Tobacco Policy Tools," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 603-638, April.
    13. Takeshima, Hiroyuki, 2008. "Behavior of subsistence producers in response to technological change- The elasticity of cassava production and home consumption in Benin," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6108, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Collet, Roger & de Lapparent, Matthieu & Hivert, Laurent, 2015. "Are French households car-use addicts? A microeconomic perspective," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 86-94.
    15. Kevin E. Staub, 2014. "A Causal Interpretation of Extensive and Intensive Margin Effects in Generalized Tobit Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 371-375, May.
    16. Bettin, Giulia & Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pigini, Claudia, 2018. "A dynamic double hurdle model for remittances: evidence from Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 365-377.
    17. Blackman, Allen & Qin, Ping & Yang, Jun, 2020. "How costly are driving restrictions? Contingent valuation evidence from Beijing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    18. Matloob Piracha & Stephane Mahuteau & Massimiliano Tani, 2010. "Selection Policy and Immigrants’ Remittance Behaviour," Studies in Economics 1003, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    19. Danúbia R. Cunha & Jose Angelo Divino & Helton Saulo, 2024. "Zero-Adjusted Log-Symmetric Quantile Regression Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 2087-2111, May.
    20. Goic, Marcel & Rojas, Andrea & Saavedra, Ignacio, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Triggered Email Marketing in Addressing Browse Abandonments," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 118-145.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:106:y:2023:i:c:s0966692322002423. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.