IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joepsy/v39y2013icp85-100.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How unaware are the unskilled? Empirical tests of the “signal extraction” counterexplanation for the Dunning–Kruger effect in self-evaluation of performance

Author

Listed:
  • Schlösser, Thomas
  • Dunning, David
  • Johnson, Kerri L.
  • Kruger, Justin

Abstract

Previous work on the Dunning–Kruger effect has shown that poor performers often show little insight into the shortcomings in their performance, presumably because they suffer a double curse. Deficits in their knowledge prevent them from both producing correct responses and recognizing that the responses they produce are inferior to those produced by others. Krajč and Ortmann (2008) offered a different account, suggesting instead that poor performers make performance estimates with no more error than top performers. Floor effects, coupled with the assumption of a backwards-J performance distribution, force their self-evaluations errors to be frequently positive in nature. Krajč and Ortmann, however, offered no empirical data to test their “signal extraction” account. In three studies, we assessed their theoretical model by examining whether (1) the data producing the Dunning–Kruger effect fit the statistical assumptions considered by Krajč and Ortmann necessary to produce it, and (2) to see if their framework reproduced Dunning–Kruger errors in a data set that fit their statistical assumptions. We found that the Krajč–Ortmann framework failed to anticipate self-evaluative misperceptions on the part of poor performers, but that it does much better at accounting for misperceptions among top performers. Paradoxically, the model suggests that Kruger and Dunning (1999) may have underestimated the accuracy of top performers, even though their account asserts such accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlösser, Thomas & Dunning, David & Johnson, Kerri L. & Kruger, Justin, 2013. "How unaware are the unskilled? Empirical tests of the “signal extraction” counterexplanation for the Dunning–Kruger effect in self-evaluation of performance," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 85-100.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:39:y:2013:i:c:p:85-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2013.07.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487013000949
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.joep.2013.07.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Rothschild & Joseph Stiglitz, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(4), pages 629-649.
    2. Krajc, Marian & Ortmann, Andreas, 2008. "Are the unskilled really that unaware? An alternative explanation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 724-738, November.
    3. Ryvkin, Dmitry & Krajč, Marian & Ortmann, Andreas, 2012. "Are the unskilled doomed to remain unaware?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1012-1031.
    4. Ehrlinger, Joyce & Johnson, Kerri & Banner, Matthew & Dunning, David & Kruger, Justin, 2008. "Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 98-121, January.
    5. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
    6. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2006. "Interactive unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 78-94, September.
    7. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    8. Young Park & Luís Santos-Pinto, 2010. "Overconfidence in tournaments: evidence from the field," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 143-166, July.
    9. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    10. Paul Ferraro, 2010. "Know Thyself: Competence and Self-awareness," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 183-196, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feld, Jan & Sauermann, Jan & de Grip, Andries, 2017. "Estimating the relationship between skill and overconfidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 18-24.
    2. Brookins, Philip & Lucas, Adriana & Ryvkin, Dmitry, 2014. "Reducing within-group overconfidence through group identity and between-group confidence judgments," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Ingrid Taylor & Pia Bing‐Jonsson & Sigrid Wangensteen & Elisabeth Finnbakk & Leiv Sandvik & Brendan McCormack & Lisbeth Fagerström, 2020. "The self‐assessment of clinical competence and the need for further training: A cross‐sectional survey of advanced practice nursing students," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3-4), pages 545-555, February.
    4. Bruce Hewitson & Katinka Waagsaether & Jan Wohland & Kate Kloppers & Teizeen Kara, 2017. "Climate information websites: an evolving landscape," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(5), September.
    5. Kawamura, Tetsuya & Mori, Tomoharu & Motonishi, Taizo & Ogawa, Kazuhito, 2021. "Is Financial Literacy Dangerous? Financial Literacy, Behavioral Factors, and Financial Choices of Households," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Meeran, Sheik & Goodwin, Paul & Yalabik, Baris, 2016. "A parsimonious explanation of observed biases when forecasting one’s own performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 112-120.
    7. Benjamin Heslop & Kylie Bailey & Jonathan Paul & Elizabeth Stojanovski, 2018. "The PILAR Model as a Measure of Peer Ratings of Collaboration Viability in Small Groups," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Grabiszewski, Konrad & Horenstein, Alex, 2020. "Effort is not a monotonic function of skills: Results from a global mobile experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 634-652.
    9. Dunkel, Curtis S. & Nedelec, Joseph & van der Linden, Dimitri, 2023. "Reevaluating the Dunning-Kruger effect: A response to and replication of Gignac and Zajenkowski (2020)," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    10. Jan R. Magnus & Anatoly A. Peresetsky, 2021. "A statistical explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect," Working Papers w0286, New Economic School (NES).
    11. Semmelmann, Leo & Konermann, Marie & Dietze, Daniel & Staudt, Philipp, 2024. "Empirical field evaluation of self-consumption promoting regulation of household battery energy storage systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    12. Peter J. Baldacchino & Chantelle Camilleri & Simon Grima & Frank H. Bezzina, 2017. "Assessing Incentive and Monitoring Schemes in the Corporate Governance of Maltese Co-operatives," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3A), pages 177-195.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brookins, Philip & Lucas, Adriana & Ryvkin, Dmitry, 2014. "Reducing within-group overconfidence through group identity and between-group confidence judgments," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Vincze, János, 2010. "Miért és mitől védjük a fogyasztókat?. Aszimmetrikus információ és/vagy korlátozott racionalitás [Asymmetric information and/or bounded rationality: why are consumers protected and from what?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 725-752.
    3. Dionne, G. & Doherty, N., 1991. "Adverse Selection In Insurance Markets: A Selective Survey," Cahiers de recherche 9105, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    4. Dongyuan Zhan & Amy R. Ward, 2019. "Staffing, Routing, and Payment to Trade off Speed and Quality in Large Service Systems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 1738-1751, November.
    5. Francois Lantin & Pierre Roy, 2007. "L'impact de la notation financière sur les stratégies de croissance externe," Post-Print halshs-00692570, HAL.
    6. Ryvkin, Dmitry & Krajč, Marian & Ortmann, Andreas, 2012. "Are the unskilled doomed to remain unaware?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1012-1031.
    7. Fabrice Etilé & Sabrina Teyssier, 2012. "Signaling Corporate Social Responsibility: Third-Party Certification vs. Brands," PSE Working Papers halshs-00736551, HAL.
    8. Feld, Jan & Sauermann, Jan & de Grip, Andries, 2017. "Estimating the relationship between skill and overconfidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 18-24.
    9. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2017. "The Revolution of Information Economics: The Past and the Future," NBER Working Papers 23780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Adam Blandin & John H. Boyd & Edward C. Prescott, 2016. "Equilibrium with mutual organizations in adverse selection economies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 3-13, June.
    11. Garcia-Villegas, Salomon, 2023. "The amplification effects of adverse selection in mortgage credit supply," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Puelz, Robert & Snow, Arthur, 1994. "Evidence on Adverse Selection: Equilibrium Signaling and Cross-Subsidization in the Insurance Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 236-257, April.
    13. Joshua Henkel, 2022. "Economics & Biology: The whole is something besides the parts – a complementary approach to a bioeconomy," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2210, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    14. Frieden, B. Roy & Hawkins, Raymond J., 2010. "Asymmetric information and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(2), pages 287-295.
    15. repec:eee:labchp:v:2:y:1986:i:c:p:789-848 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Saul Estrin & Susanna Khavul & Mike Wright, 2022. "Soft and hard information in equity crowdfunding: network effects in the digitalization of entrepreneurial finance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1761-1781, April.
    17. Pavan, Alessandro & Vives, Xavier, 2015. "Information, Coordination, and Market Frictions: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 407-426.
    18. Panle Jia Barwick & Yanyan Liu & Eleonora Patacchini & Qi Wu, 2023. "Information, Mobile Communication, and Referral Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(5), pages 1170-1207, May.
    19. Lupton, Sylvie, 2006. "Il était une fois la qualité," MPRA Paper 5, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Anastasios Dosis, 2016. "An Efficient Mechanism for Competitive Markets with Adverse Selection," Working Papers hal-01282772, HAL.
    21. Wei Zhang, 2014. "Job Market Signalling With Two Dimensions Of Private Information," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 113-132, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calibration; Judgment errors; Performance evaluation; Metacognition; Self-evaluation; Overconfidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:39:y:2013:i:c:p:85-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.