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Semiparametric estimation of conditional copulas

Author

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  • Abegaz, Fentaw
  • Gijbels, Irène
  • Veraverbeke, Noël

Abstract

The manner in which two random variables influence one another often depends on covariates. A way to model this dependence is via a conditional copula function. This paper contributes to the study of semiparametric estimation of conditional copulas by starting from a parametric copula function in which the parameter varies with a covariate, and leaving the marginals unspecified. Consequently, the unknown parts in the model are the parameter function and the unknown marginals. The authors use a local pseudo-likelihood with nonparametrically estimated marginals approximating the unknown parameter function locally by a polynomial. Under this general setting, they prove the consistency of the estimators of the parameter function as well as its derivatives; they also establish asymptotic normality. Furthermore, they derive an expression for the theoretical optimal bandwidth and discuss practical bandwidth selection. They illustrate the performance of the estimation procedure with data-driven bandwidth selection via a simulation study and a real-data case.

Suggested Citation

  • Abegaz, Fentaw & Gijbels, Irène & Veraverbeke, Noël, 2012. "Semiparametric estimation of conditional copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 43-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:110:y:2012:i:c:p:43-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2012.04.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hafner, Christian M. & Reznikova, Olga, 2010. "Efficient estimation of a semiparametric dynamic copula model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2609-2627, November.
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    3. Gijbels, Irène & Veraverbeke, Noël & Omelka, Marel, 2011. "Conditional copulas, association measures and their applications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 1919-1932, May.
    4. Acar, Elif F. & Genest, Christian & Nešlehová, Johanna, 2012. "Beyond simplified pair-copula constructions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 74-90.
    5. Elif F. Acar & Radu V. Craiu & Fang Yao, 2011. "Dependence Calibration in Conditional Copulas: A Nonparametric Approach," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 445-453, June.
    6. J. Fan & M. Farmen & I. Gijbels, 1998. "Local maximum likelihood estimation and inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(3), pages 591-608.
    7. Kim, Gunky & Silvapulle, Mervyn J. & Silvapulle, Paramsothy, 2007. "Comparison of semiparametric and parametric methods for estimating copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 2836-2850, March.
    8. Noël Veraverbeke & Marek Omelka & Irène Gijbels, 2011. "Estimation of a Conditional Copula and Association Measures," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 38(4), pages 766-780, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fermanian, Jean-David & Lopez, Olivier, 2018. "Single-index copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 27-55.
    2. Gijbels, Irène & Omelka, Marek & Veraverbeke, Noël, 2021. "Omnibus test for covariate effects in conditional copula models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Jean-David Fermanian, 2012. "An overview of the goodness-of-fit test problem for copulas," Papers 1211.4416, arXiv.org.
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    5. Grazian, Clara & Dalla Valle, Luciana & Liseo, Brunero, 2022. "Approximate Bayesian conditional copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Zongwu Cai & Guannan Liu & Wei Long & Xuelong Luo, 2024. "Semiparametric Conditional Mixture Copula Models with Copula Selection," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202401, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2024.
    7. Luciana Dalla Valle & Fabrizio Leisen & Luca Rossini, 2018. "Bayesian non‐parametric conditional copula estimation of twin data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(3), pages 523-548, April.
    8. Gardes, Laurent & Girard, Stéphane, 2015. "Nonparametric estimation of the conditional tail copula," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Bingduo Yang & Zongwu Cai & Christian M. Hafner & Guannan Liu, 2018. "Trending Mixture Copula Models with Copula Selection," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201809, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2018.
    10. Guannan Liu & Wei Long & Bingduo Yang & Zongwu Cai, 2022. "Semiparametric estimation and model selection for conditional mixture copula models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(1), pages 287-330, March.
    11. Lopez, Olivier, 2019. "A censored copula model for micro-level claim reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-14.
    12. Gijbels, Irène & Omelka, Marek & Pešta, Michal & Veraverbeke, Noël, 2017. "Score tests for covariate effects in conditional copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 111-133.
    13. Genest Christian & Scherer Matthias, 2023. "When copulas and smoothing met: An interview with Irène Gijbels," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, January.
    14. Emura, Takeshi & Lai, Ching-Chieh & Sun, Li-Hsien, 2023. "Change point estimation under a copula-based Markov chain model for binomial time series," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 120-137.
    15. Djaloud, Toihir Soulaimana & Seck, Cheikh Tidiane, 2024. "Nonparametric kernel estimation of conditional copula density," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    16. Derumigny Alexis & Fermanian Jean-David, 2017. "About tests of the “simplifying” assumption for conditional copulas," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 154-197, August.

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