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Generalized additive models for conditional dependence structures

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  • Vatter, Thibault
  • Chavez-Demoulin, Valérie

Abstract

We develop a generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of predictors on the dependence structure between two variables. We consider dependence or concordance measures that are solely functions of the copula, because they contain no marginal information: rank correlation coefficients or tail-dependence coefficients represent natural choices. We propose a maximum penalized log-likelihood estimator, derive its n-consistency and asymptotic normality, discuss details of the estimation procedure and the selection of the smoothing parameter. Finally, we present the results from a simulation study and apply the new methodology to a real dataset. Using intraday asset returns, we show that an intraday dependence pattern, due to the cyclical nature of market activity, is shaped similarly to the individual conditional second moments.

Suggested Citation

  • Vatter, Thibault & Chavez-Demoulin, Valérie, 2015. "Generalized additive models for conditional dependence structures," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 147-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:141:y:2015:i:c:p:147-167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2015.07.003
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    5. Nadja Klein & Thomas Kneib & Giampiero Marra & Rosalba Radice & Slawa Rokicki & Mark E. McGovern, 2018. "Mixed Binary-Continuous Copula Regression Models with Application to Adverse Birth Outcomes," CHaRMS Working Papers 18-06, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
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    8. Kneib, Thomas & Silbersdorff, Alexander & Säfken, Benjamin, 2023. "Rage Against the Mean – A Review of Distributional Regression Approaches," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 99-123.
    9. Levi, Evgeny & Craiu, Radu V., 2018. "Bayesian inference for conditional copulas using Gaussian Process single index models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 115-134.
    10. Derumigny Alexis & Fermanian Jean-David, 2017. "About tests of the “simplifying” assumption for conditional copulas," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 154-197, August.
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    13. Acar, Elif F. & Czado, Claudia & Lysy, Martin, 2019. "Flexible dynamic vine copula models for multivariate time series data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 181-197.

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