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Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities

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  • Chinn, Menzie
  • Ferrara, Laurent
  • Mignon, Valérie

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between employment and GDP in the United States. We disentangle trend and cyclical employment components by estimating a non-linear smooth transition error-correction model that simultaneously accounts for long-term relationships between growth and employment and short-run instability over the business cycle. Based on out-of-sample conditional forecasts, we conclude that, since the end of the 2008–09 recession, US employment is on average around 1% below the level implied by the long run output–employment relationship, meaning that about 1.2million of the trend employment loss cannot be attributed to the identified cyclical factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Chinn, Menzie & Ferrara, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 118-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:118-129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. James DeNicco & Christopher A. Laincz, 2018. "Jobless Recovery: A Time Series Look at the United States," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(1), pages 3-25, March.
    2. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. L. Ferrara. & G. Sestieri., 2014. "US labour market and monetary policy: current debates and challenges," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 36, pages 111-129, winter.
    4. Biswajit Nag & Willem van der Geest, 2020. "Economic Impact Analysis of Covid-19 Implication on India’s GDP, Employment and Inequality," Working Papers 2041, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    5. Bartosik Krzysztof, 2024. "The effect of output on employment in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 10(3), pages 58-83.
    6. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
    7. Xuexin Wang & Yixiao Sun, 2020. "An Asymptotic F Test for Uncorrelatedness in the Presence of Time Series Dependence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 536-550, July.
    8. Ousama Ben-Salha & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 598-624, December.
    9. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "Did Okun’s law die after the Great Recession?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 216-226, October.
    10. Cuesta, Lizeth, 2020. "Impacto de la política de empleo juvenil en la disminución del desempleo en los países de la Unión Europea, período 2002-2017 [Impact of youth employment policy on the reduction of unemployment in ," MPRA Paper 111026, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun’s law; Trend employment; Non-linear modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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