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The effect of output on employment in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

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  • Bartosik Krzysztof

    (Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Nowy Świat 72, 00-330 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant decline in output, as well as economic policies aimed at mitigating the negative effects of the pandemic. Both of these factors had an impact on the labour market. This paper investigates changes in employment across groups of workers during the coronavirus pandemic in Poland and the effect of output on these changes. Firstly, it examines changes in employment growth rates across different groups of workers in 2020. Secondly, the paper analyses the impact of the coronavirus crisis on employment by comparing actual and predicted employment growth during the pandemic period (2020). Using Okun’s law, Ordinary Least Squares, and quarterly data, the elasticities of employment growth with respect to GDP growth in the pre-pandemic period (2003–2019) are calculated. These elasticities are then used to estimate projected employment growth during the pandemic. The results suggest that the total employment response to output change was relatively small, compared to the historical pattern. However, the response was unequal across groups of workers. The youngest workers, particularly women, and those with temporary employment contracts were most affected by the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartosik Krzysztof, 2024. "The effect of output on employment in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 10(3), pages 58-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecobur:v:10:y:2024:i:3:p:58-83:n:1006
    DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2024.3.1490
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie & Ferrara, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 118-129.
    2. Louis-Philippe Beland & Oluwatobi Fakorede & Derek Mikola, 2020. "Short-Term Effect of COVID-19 on Self-Employed Workers in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 46(S1), pages 66-81, July.
    3. Guillermo Gallacher & Iqbal Hossain, 2020. "Remote Work and Employment Dynamics under COVID-19: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 46(S1), pages 44-54, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; employment; employment elasticity; Okun’s law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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