Okun's Law across the Business Cycle and during the Great Recession: A Markov Switching Analysis
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Mary Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin & Robert Valletta, 2011. "A Rising Natural Rate of Unemployment: Transitory or Permanent?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-160/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Michael W.L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2011.
"The Labor Market in the Great Recession: An Update,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
11-173/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2011. "The labor market in the Great Recession: an update," Working Paper Series 2011-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Jesse Rothstein, 2012.
"The Labor Market Four Years into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations,"
ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(3), pages 467-500, July.
- Jesse Rothstein, 2012. "The Labor Market Four Years Into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations," NBER Working Papers 17966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rothstein, Jesse, 2012. "The Labor Market Four Years Into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2x576316, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Rothstein, Jesse, 2012. "The Labor Market Four Years Into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt2x576316, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986.
"Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
- Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
- Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010.
"The Labor Market in the Great Recession,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
- Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin & Michael Elsby, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," 2010 Meeting Papers 323, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2010. "The labor market in the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Michael W. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 15979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-445, Oct.-Dec..
- Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies," Working Papers 2011005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
- Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 399-418.
- Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987.
"Hysteresis in unemployment,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986. "Hysteresis and Unemployment," Working papers 430, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis in Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 2035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
- Holmes, Mark J. & Silverstone, Brian, 2006.
"Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 293-299, August.
- Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2005. "Okun's Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in the United States: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers in Economics 05/06, University of Waikato.
- Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2013. "Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?," NBER Working Papers 18668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michelle L. Barnes & Fabia Gumbau-Brisa & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2013. "Do real-time Okun's law errors predict GDP data revisions?," Working Papers 13-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Koutroulis, Aristotelis & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2016. "Asymmetry in the response of unemployment to output changes in Greece: Evidence from hidden co-integration," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 81-88.
- Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "GDP-Employment decoupling and the slow-down of productivity growth in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201912, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- van Ours, Jan C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so Great," CEPR Discussion Papers 10376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rui Pereira, 2014.
"Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia,"
The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
- Rui M. Pereira, 2014. "Okun's Law, Asymmetries and Regional Spillovers: Evidence from Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the District of Columbia," Working Papers 140, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- van Ours, Jan C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so great," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-12.
- Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim & Jan C. van Ours, 2017.
"Revisiting the Okun relationship,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(28), pages 2749-2765, June.
- van Ours, Jan C. & Dixon, Robert & Lim, Guay, 2016. "Revisiting Okun's relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 11184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dixon, R. & Lim, G.C. & van Ours, Jan, 2016. "Revisiting Okun's Relationship," Other publications TiSEM ac544754-2905-412a-a70e-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Dixon, R. & Lim, G.C. & van Ours, Jan, 2016. "Revisiting Okun's Relationship," Discussion Paper 2016-010, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim & Jan C. van Ours, 2016. "Revisiting Okun’s Relationship," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Dixon, Robert & Lim, Guay C. & van Ours, Jan C., 2016. "Revisiting Okun's Relationship," IZA Discussion Papers 9815, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- van Ours, J.C., 2015.
"The Great Recession was not so Great,"
Other publications TiSEM
b88a88a8-c20f-4145-84c2-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- van Ours, J.C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so Great," Discussion Paper 2015-006, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- G. C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Jan C. Ours, 2021.
"Beyond Okun’s law: output growth and labor market flows,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1387-1409, March.
- van Ours, Jan C. & Lim, Guay & Dixon, Robert, 2018. "Beyond Okun's Law: Output Growth and Labor Market Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 13369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guay C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Jan (J.C.) van Ours, 2018. "Beyond Okun's Law: Output Growth and Labor Market Flows," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-097/V, Tinbergen Institute.
- Guay C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Jan C. van Ours, 2019. "Beyond Okun's Law: Output Growth and Labor Market Flows," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n01, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020.
"GDP-employment decoupling in Germany,"
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
- Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "On GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201421, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
- Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Rui Pereira, 2014.
"Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia,"
The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
- Rui M. Pereira, 2014. "Okun's Law, Asymmetries and Regional Spillovers: Evidence from Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the District of Columbia," Working Papers 140, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Costas KARFAKIS & Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS & Eftychia TSANANA, 2014.
"Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece,"
International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(3), pages 421-433, September.
- Costas Karfakis & Konstantinos Katrakilidis & Eftychia Tsanana, 2013. "Does Output Predict Unemployment? A Look at Okun’s Law in Greece," Discussion Paper Series 2013_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2013.
- Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2017.
"Did Okun’s law die after the Great Recession?,"
Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 216-226, October.
- Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Did Okun's Law Die after the Great Recession?," Working papers 2016-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014.
"Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
- Richard Durech & Alexandru Minea & Lavinia Teodora Mustea & Lubica Slusna, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Post-Print halshs-01019147, HAL.
- Antal, Miklós, 2014. "Green goals and full employment: Are they compatible?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 276-286.
- Celia Melguizo, 2017.
"An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces,"
Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 59-90, February.
- Celia Melguizo, 2015. "An analysis of Okun?s law for the Spanish provinces," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1558, European Regional Science Association.
- Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.
- Roger, Perman & Jean-Philippe, Boussemart & Walter, Briec & Christophe, Tavéra, 2013. "How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-60, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
- Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
- Dickens William T. & Triest Robert K., 2012. "Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-41, October.
- Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013.
"Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law,"
Working Papers
hal-04141207, HAL.
- Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law," Working Papers 2013-13, CEPII research center.
- Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun's law," NBER Working Papers 19047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Vierke, Hauke, 2016.
"Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-208.
- Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
- Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Koutroulis, Aristotelis & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2016. "Asymmetry in the response of unemployment to output changes in Greece: Evidence from hidden co-integration," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 81-88.
- Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018.
"A state-level analysis of Okun's law,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
- Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-29, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law," Working Papers (Old Series) 1523, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Amy Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael Owyang & Tara Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-17, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Abdessalem GOUIDER & Ridha NOUIRA & Faouzi SBOUI, 2018. "La relation croissance-chômage en Tunisie : validation de la spécification non linéaire de la loi d’Okun," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 47, pages 27-41.
- repec:ilo:ilowps:467629 is not listed on IDEAS
- Brian Tavonga Mazorodze & Noureen Siddiq, 2018. "On the Unemployment Output Relation in South Africa: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(5), pages 167-178.
- Celia Melguizo Cháfer, 2015. "“An analysis of the Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces”," AQR Working Papers 201501, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2015.
More about this item
Keywords
Okun's law; the Great Recession; Business Cycle; Auto-regressive distributed lag; Markov Switching.;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-MAC-2013-06-16 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daifeng He or Alfredo Pereira (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decwmus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.