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Estimating the trend in employment growth

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  • Daniel Aaronson
  • Scott Brave

Abstract

For the unemployment rate to decline, the U.S. economy needs to generate above-trend job growth. We currently estimate trend employment growth to be around 80,000 jobs per month, and we expect it to decline over the remainder of the decade, due largely to changing labor force demographics and slower population growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Aaronson & Scott Brave, 2013. "Estimating the trend in employment growth," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhle:y:2013:i:july:n:312
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    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/chicago_fed_letter/2013/cfljuly2013_312.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chinn, Menzie & Ferrara, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 118-129.
    2. Mark E. Schweitzer & Murat Tasci, 2013. "What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
    3. Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2022. "Millennials: Maligned or miscreants?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(4), pages 1248-1276, April.

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    Keywords

    Employment;

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