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Effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on housing prices in Canada

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  • Nsafoah, Dennis
  • Dery, Cosmas

Abstract

This paper investigates the relative importance and effect of conventional and unconventional Canadian monetary policy surprises on housing prices. Using a credible approach to identify structural monetary policy shocks in Canada and a comprehensive Bayesian VAR model to analyze their effects on financial and macroeconomic variables, we find that both conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing shocks have a significant and persistent effect on housing prices in Canada. However, the inflationary effect of a quantitative easing shock is more pronounced than that of an easing target monetary policy surprise. Specifically, the peak effect of a 25-basis point expansionary conventional monetary policy shock is a 2.30% increase in real housing prices while a comparable quantitative easing surprise leads to a peak of 4.56% increase in real housing prices. We conclude that expansionary monetary policy in various forms has had significant inflationary effects on Canadian housing prices. But quantitative easing surprises stand out as the most prominent contributory factor to the escalating Canadian real estate price. Quantitative easing impact consistently outweighs the effects of forward guidance and conventional monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nsafoah, Dennis & Dery, Cosmas, 2024. "Effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on housing prices in Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:64:y:2024:i:c:s1051137724000123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.101993
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conventional monetary policy shocks; Forward guidance shocks; Quantitative easing shocks; Prices; Output; Interest rates; Housing prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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