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The great surge in mortgage defaults 2006-2009: The comparative roles of economic conditions, underwriting and moral hazard

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  • Capozza, Dennis R.
  • Order, Robert Van

Abstract

In this research we exploit the power of a large and rich sample of individual loans originated from 2000 to 2007 to study the relative roles of underwriting, moral hazard and local economic conditions in the Great Surge in mortgage defaults. With these data we can observe the information available to investors and control for observable underwriting as well as economic conditions. We can also use the data to infer the share due to moral hazard. Estimates from these data suggest that much of the variation was due to economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Capozza, Dennis R. & Order, Robert Van, 2011. "The great surge in mortgage defaults 2006-2009: The comparative roles of economic conditions, underwriting and moral hazard," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 141-151, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:20:y:2011:i:2:p:141-151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ryan Bubb & Alex Kaufman, 2009. "Securitization and moral hazard: evidence from a lender cutoff rule," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2008. "Where's the smoking gun? a study of underwriting standards for US subprime mortgages," Working Papers 2008-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    4. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    5. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. James N. Conklin & Moussa Diop & Thao Le & Walter D’Lima, 2019. "The Importance of Originator-Servicer Affiliation in Loan Renegotiation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 56-89, July.
    2. Tsai, Pei-Hsuan & Wang, Ying-Wei & Chang, Wen-Chang, 2023. "Hybrid MADM-based study of key risk factors in house-for-pension reverse mortgage lending in Taiwan's banking industry," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 607-670, November.
    4. Seungwoo Choi & Mun Yong Yi, 2021. "Computational Valuation Model of Housing Price Using Pseudo Self Comparison Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Charters, Thomas J. & Harper, Sam & Strumpf, Erin C. & Subramanian, S.V. & Arcaya, Mariana & Nandi, Arijit, 2016. "The effect of metropolitan-area mortgage delinquency on health behaviors, access to health services, and self-rated health in the United States, 2003–2010," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 74-82.
    6. Philippas, Nikolaos & Economou, Fotini & Babalos, Vassilios & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2013. "Herding behavior in REITs: Novel tests and the role of financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-174.
    7. John I. Carruthers & Gordon F. Mulligan, 2013. "Through the Crisis," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 27(2), pages 124-143, May.
    8. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2015. "A New Look at the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis: Panel Data Evidence of Prime and Subprime Borrowers from 1997 to 2012," NBER Working Papers 21261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Yaseen Ghulam & Sophie Hill, 2017. "Distinguishing between Good and Bad Subprime Auto Loans Borrowers: The Role of Demographic, Region and Loan Characteristics," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 10, pages 49-62, November.
    10. Tahsin, Salman, 2022. "Home price growth and minority access to mortgage credit," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Detecting Mortgage Delinquencies," IZA Discussion Papers 5895, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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