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Appraisal inflation: Evidence from the 2009 GSE HVCC intervention

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  • Shi, Lan
  • Zhang, Yan

Abstract

Appraisal inflation is a prominent aspect of lax underwriting practice. The GSE May 2009 Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) aims to prohibit lenders from influencing appraisers. Refinance loans, without a transaction price, are potentially more susceptible to appraisal inflation than purchase loans. We use GSE refinance loans as our treatment group and non-GSE refinance loans as the control group, and find that GSE refinance loans originated after May 2009 have lower default rates than non-GSE refinance loans. We further measure the appraisal inflation (bias) as the difference between the appraisal value in a 2009 refinance transaction and the actual transaction price in an earlier purchase transaction for the same property adjusted for local housing value changes. We find that the reduction in appraisal bias was larger for GSE refinance loans than for non-GSE refinance loans. This paper quantifies the “contribution” of appraisal inflation in poor loan underwriting standards and highlights the importance of unbiased and independent appraisal.

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  • Shi, Lan & Zhang, Yan, 2015. "Appraisal inflation: Evidence from the 2009 GSE HVCC intervention," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 71-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:27:y:2015:i:c:p:71-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2015.02.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamilton Fout & Nuno Mota & Eric Rosenblatt, 2022. "When Appraisers Go Low, Contracts Go Lower: The Impact of Expert Opinions on Transaction Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 451-491, October.
    2. Hatch, M.E., 2021. "Voluntary, forced, and induced renter mobility: The influence of state policies," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Conklin, James N. & Frame, W. Scott & Gerardi, Kristopher & Liu, Haoyang, 2022. "Villains or scapegoats? The role of subprime borrowers in driving the U.S. housing boom," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Yao, Vincent W., 2020. "Can regulation de-bias appraisers?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    5. Michael D. Eriksen & Hamilton B. Fout & Mark Palim & Eric Rosenblatt, 2020. "Contract Price Confirmation Bias: Evidence from Repeat Appraisals," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 77-98, February.
    6. Yanling G. Mayer & Frank E. Nothaft, 2022. "Appraisal overvaluation: Evidence of price adjustment bias in sales Comparisons," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 862-881, September.
    7. Glennon, Dennis & Kiefer, Hua & Mayock, Tom, 2018. "Measurement error in residential property valuation: An application of forecast combination," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
    8. James Conklin & N. Edward Coulson & Moussa Diop & Thao Le, 2020. "Competition and Appraisal Inflation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-38, June.
    9. James Conklin & Moussa Diop & Mingming Qiu, 2022. "Religion and Mortgage Misrepresentation," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 179(1), pages 273-295, August.
    10. Eriksen, Michael D. & Fout, Hamilton B. & Palim, Mark & Rosenblatt, Eric, 2019. "The influence of contract prices and relationships on appraisal bias," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 132-143.
    11. Chris Cunningham & Kristopher Gerardi & Lily Shen, 2021. "The Double Trigger for Mortgage Default: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3943-3964, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Appraisal; Appraisal bias; Appraisal inflation; Appraisal independence; GSE; HVCC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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