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Investigating recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate

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  • Kearney, Melissa S.
  • Levine, Phillip B.

Abstract

We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, focusing specifically on the sizable decline since 1991. We focus on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on aggregate teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid, but these policies can account for only 12.6 percent of the observed decline since 1991. Third, higher unemployment rates lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 16 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began.

Suggested Citation

  • Kearney, Melissa S. & Levine, Phillip B., 2015. "Investigating recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 15-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:41:y:2015:i:c:p:15-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2015.01.003
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    3. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2021. "Women’s reproductive health and economic activity: A narrative review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Lifang Yan & Wenzhong Ye, 2023. "How Do House Prices and Financial Expenditure Affect Birth Rate? New Evidence from the Dynamic Threshold Panel Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Kelly, Andrea & Lindo, Jason M. & Packham, Analisa, 2020. "The power of the IUD: Effects of expanding access to contraception through Title X clinics," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Zuleika Ferre & Patricia Triunfo & José‐Ignacio Antón, 2023. "Subdermal contraceptive implants and repeat teenage motherhood: Evidence from a major maternity hospital‐based program in Uruguay," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(12), pages 2679-2693, December.
    7. Jones, Kelly M. & Pineda-Torres, Mayra, 2024. "TRAP’d Teens: Impacts of abortion provider regulations on fertility & education," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    8. Lena Janys & Bettina Siflinger, 2021. "Mental Health and Abortions among Young Women: Time-Varying Unobserved Heterogeneity, Health Behaviors, and Risky Decisions," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 083, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Janys, Lena & Siflinger, Bettina, 2024. "Mental health and abortions among young women: time-varying unobserved heterogeneity, health behaviors, and risky decisions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    10. Elizabeth Munnich & Abigail Wozniak, 2020. "What Explains the Rising Share of US Men in Registered Nursing?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 73(1), pages 91-123, January.
    11. Stefanie Mollborn & Juhee Woo & Richard G. Rogers, 2018. "A longitudinal examination of US teen childbearing and smoking risk," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(24), pages 619-650.
    12. Lisa Schulkind & Danielle H. Sandler, 2019. "The Timing of Teenage Births: Estimating the Effect on High School Graduation and Later-Life Outcomes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(1), pages 345-365, February.
    13. Devon Gorry, 2023. "Consequences of Teenage Childbearing on Child Outcomes in the United States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 225-254, January.
    14. Potter, Marina Haddock & Font, Sarah A., 2021. "State contexts and foster care adoption rates," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Lars J. Lefgren & Jaren C. Pope & David P. Sims, 2022. "Contemporary State Policies and Intergenerational Income Mobility," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(4), pages 1107-1146.
    16. Luca, Dara Lee & Stevens, Jack & Rotz, Dana & Goesling, Brian & Lutz, Robyn, 2021. "Evaluating teen options for preventing pregnancy: Impacts and mechanisms," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Shoshana Grossbard & Victoria Vernon, 2017. "Common Law Marriage and Teen Births," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 129-145, March.
    18. Aaron M. Gamino, 2024. "The impact of juvenile curfews on teenage birth rates," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1528-1545, July.
    19. Sandner, Malte, 2019. "Effects of early childhood intervention on fertility and maternal employment: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 159-181.
    20. Fletcher, Jason M. & Polos, Jessica, 2017. "Nonmarital and Teen Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 10833, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Mariana Amorim & Laura M. Tach, 2019. "Multiple-Partner Fertility and Cohort Change in the Prevalence of Half-Siblings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2033-2061, December.
    22. David Paton & Stephen Bullivant & Juan Soto, 2020. "The impact of sex education mandates on teenage pregnancy: International evidence," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 790-807, July.
    23. Andrew J Baxter, Mr & Dundas, Ms Ruth & Popham, Dr Frank & Craig, Dr Peter, 2021. "How effective was England's teenage pregnancy strategy? A comparative analysis of high-income countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    24. Grace Arnold, 2022. "The impact of targeted regulation of abortion providers laws on abortions and births," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1443-1472, October.
    25. Galárraga, Omar & Harris, Jeffrey E., 2021. "Effect of an abrupt change in sexual and reproductive health policy on teen birth rates in Ecuador, 2008–2017," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

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