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The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices

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  • Dong, Fengxia

Abstract

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells's technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.
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  • Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:31:y:2006:i:3:p:260-271
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    1. Cheng, Leilei & Yin, Changbin & Chien, Hsiaoping, 2015. "Demand for milk quantity and safety in urban China: evidence from Beijing and Harbin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(2), April.
    2. Beghin, John C. & Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey, 2014. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," Staff General Research Papers Archive 38196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Jarosław Malczewski & Wawrzyniec Czubak, 2021. "Hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks Based Framework for Skimmed Milk Powder Price Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Beghin, John & Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey, 2017. "A food demand framework for International Food Security Assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 827-842.
    5. Peng, Tingjun & Cox, Thomas L., 2006. "An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 249-259, June.
    6. Junfei Bai & Thomas I. Wahl & Jill J. McCluskey, 2008. "Fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao, China ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(2), pages 133-147, June.
    7. Junfei Bai & Jill J. McCluskey & Hainan Wang & Shi Min, 2014. "Dietary Globalization in Chinese Breakfasts," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(3), pages 325-341, September.
    8. Fuller, Frank & Huang, Jikun & Ma, Hengyun & Rozelle, Scott, 2006. "Got milk? The rapid rise of China's dairy sector and its future prospects," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 201-215, June.
    9. Birthal, Pratap S., 2008. "Linking Smallholder Livestock Producers to Markets: Issues and Approaches," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 1-19.
    10. Jin, Yanhong H. & Lin, Liguo & Yao, Lan, 2011. "Do Consumers Trust the National Inspection Exemption Brands? Evidence from Infant Formula in China," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103766, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.
    12. Beghin, John C., 2006. "Evolving dairy markets in Asia: Recent findings and implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 195-200, June.
    13. Panos Fousekis & Vasilis Grigoriadis, 2016. "Price co-movement in the principal skim milk powder producing regions: a wavelet analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 477-492.
    14. Shashika D. Rathnayaka & Saroja Selvanathan & E. A. Selvanathan, 2021. "Demand for animal‐derived food in selected Asian countries: A system‐wide analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 97-122, January.
    15. Campo, Isabelle Schluep & Beghin, John C., 2006. "Japanese Consumer Demand for Dairy Products," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25285, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Jane Dixon, 2009. "From the imperial to the empty calorie: how nutrition relations underpin food regime transitions," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 26(4), pages 321-333, December.
    17. Phil Briggs & Carly Harker & Tim Ng & Aidan Yao, 2011. "Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Boniface, Bonaventure & Gyau, Amos & Stringer, Randy, 2009. "Relationship quality as the predictor of long term relationship in the Malaysian dairy industry," MPRA Paper 24420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Hussain, Safdar & Ahmed, Wasim & Rabnawaz, Ambar & Jafar, Rana Muhammad Sohail & Saqib, Zulkaif Ahmed & Ullah, Sana & JianZhou, Yang, 2016. "Client Intentions and Buying Behavior with Regard of Dairy Products-Review," MPRA Paper 70383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Peng, Tingjun & Cox, Thomas L., 2005. "An Economic Analysis of the Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Asian Dairy Market," Staff Papers 12630, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    21. Shaosheng Jin & Rao Yuan & Yan Zhang & Xin Jin, 2019. "Chinese Consumers’ Preferences for Attributes of Fresh Milk: A Best–Worst Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-16, November.
    22. Qingbin Wang & Robert Parsons & Guangxuan Zhang, 2010. "China's dairy markets: trends, disparities, and implications for trade," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(3), pages 356-371, September.
    23. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2016. "Spatial price dependence by time scale: Empirical evidence from the international butter markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 195-204.
    24. Li, Jing & Dharmasena, Senarath, 2016. "Investigating Economic and Demographic Factors Affecting Consumer Demand for Coconut-milk in the United States," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235641, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    25. Boniface, Bonaventure & Umberger, Wendy J., 2012. "Factors influencing Malaysian consumers’ consumption of dairy products," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124243, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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