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The Mortgage Market Meltdown and House Prices

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  • Hubbard R. Glenn

    (Columbia University)

  • Mayer Christopher J

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

This paper argues that the U.S. mortgage debacle must be analyzed in the broader setting of global real estate markets. Recent U.S. home price growth closely tracked increases in other developed economies. The analysis distinguishes among market regions in terms of supply elasticity and localized transactions-costs. A series of user-cost models are presented which imply that interest rate fluctuations must figure prominently in any explanation of movements in price/rent ratios. National factors such as the expansion of subprime credit must also be accounted for. The paper concludes with policy prescriptions addressing rapid price declines and elevated interest-rate spreads. We argue that the federal government should play a leading role in helping to reduce interest rates on new mortgages and cushion against underwriting losses on the existing balance sheets of lenders.

Suggested Citation

  • Hubbard R. Glenn & Mayer Christopher J, 2009. "The Mortgage Market Meltdown and House Prices," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-47, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:9:y:2009:i:3:n:8
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1682.2223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
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    8. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    9. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    10. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    11. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 498-514, Autumn.
    12. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
    13. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, September.
    14. Bucks, Brian & Pence, Karen, 2008. "Do borrowers know their mortgage terms?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 218-233, September.
    15. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
    16. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donghoon Lee & Christopher Mayer & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "A New Look at Second Liens," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 205-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    3. Keys, Benjamin J. & Pope, Devin G. & Pope, Jaren C., 2016. "Failure to refinance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 482-499.
    4. Umberto Filotto & Claudio Giannotti & Gianluca Mattarocci & Xenia Scimone, 2021. "The Influence of Macro factors On Residential Mortgage In Italy," International Journal of Business Research and Management (IJBRM), Computer Science Journals (CSC Journals), vol. 12(3), pages 103-115, June.
    5. David C. Ling & Joseph T.L. Ooi & Thao T.T. Le, 2015. "Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 87-125, March.
    6. Thissen, M.J.P.M. & Burger, M.J. & van Oort, F.G., 2010. "House Prices, Bubbles and City Size," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2010-030-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    7. Sarah Carrington & Jakob B. Madsen, 2011. "House Prices, Credit and Willingness to Lend," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(279), pages 537-557, December.
    8. Wu, JunJie & Sexton, Steven & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Energy price shocks, household location patterns and housing crises: Theory and implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 691-706.
    9. Deeksha Gupta, 2018. "Too Much Skin-in-the-Game? The Effect of Mortgage Market Concentration on Credit and House Prices," 2018 Meeting Papers 512, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    11. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
    12. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2019. "Large price movements in housing markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-23.
    13. Joshua Abel & Andreas Fuster, 2021. "How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? Evidence from HARP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 254-291, April.
    14. Walentin, Karl, 2014. "Business cycle implications of mortgage spreads," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-77.
    15. Neil Bhutta & Benjamin J. Keys, 2016. "Interest Rates and Equity Extraction during the Housing Boom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1742-1774, July.
    16. Janice Eberly & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2014. "Efficient Credit Policies in a Housing Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 73-136.
    17. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    18. Viktor Dorofeenko & Gabriel S. Lee & Kevin D. Salyer, 2011. "Rationale Erklärungen für Immobilienpreis‐Bubbles: Die Auswirkungen von Risikoschocks auf die Wohnimmobilienpreisvolatilität und die Volatilität von Investitionen in Wohnimmobilien," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 151-169, May.
    19. Anundsen, André K. & Jansen, Eilev S., 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 192-212.
    20. Sommer, Kamila & Sullivan, Paul & Verbrugge, Randal, 2013. "The equilibrium effect of fundamentals on house prices and rents," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 854-870.
    21. Alex Chinco & Christopher Mayer, 2016. "Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 486-522.
    22. Janice Eberly & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2014. "Efficient Credit Policies in a Housing Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 73-136.
    23. David E. Rappoport, 2016. "Do Mortgage Subsidies Help or Hurt Borrowers?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-081, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tim Landvoigt & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program," NBER Working Papers 21512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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