IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i2p73-d1046707.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Natural Quasi-Experiment of the Monetary Policy Shocks on the Housing Markets of New Zealand during COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Chung Yim Yiu

    (Department of Property, The University of Auckland Business School, Auckland 1010, New Zealand)

Abstract

It is hard to experimentally test the impacts of monetary policy shocks on housing markets as it is very unlikely for a central bank to change monetary policies swiftly twice within a short period of time for exogenous reasons. However, during the pandemic, the central bank of New Zealand changed its policies 180 degree in 2 years, from an unprecedented low interest rate and a relaxed mortgage policy in 2020 to a 13-year record high interest rate and a tightened mortgage policy in 2022. Among the OECD members, New Zealand is the country that increased the interest rate the earliest and also the country that had its house prices fall the earliest. It provides natural quasi-experiments to test the monetary policy hypothesis empirically by the two policy changes as treatments on house prices. This study conducts a time series regression analysis on the housing markets of New Zealand to test the hypothesis in the pre-COVID and the COVID periods, ranging from 2016 Q2 to 2022 Q3. The results confirm that mortgage rates have a negative and significant effect on house price changes after controlling for the economic growth factor and the housing supply factor, no matter whether the monetary policy switches to expansionary or contractionary mode. The robustness test results of the housing markets show that a 1% fall/rise in the mortgage rate caused a 5.6% increase/decrease in house prices, ceteris paribus, in the COVID period. The results also do not support the housing supply hypothesis in New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung Yim Yiu, 2023. "A Natural Quasi-Experiment of the Monetary Policy Shocks on the Housing Markets of New Zealand during COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:73-:d:1046707
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/2/73/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/2/73/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Arestis & Ana González, 2014. "Bank credit and the housing market in OECD countries," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 467-490.
    2. Tripathi, Sabyasachi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Housing Prices: A Cross Country Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 98089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    4. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:66:p:233-283 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez‐Martinez, 2016. "House Prices and Current Account Imbalances in OECD Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 58-74, January.
    6. Heider, Florian & Ljungqvist, Alexander, 2015. "As certain as debt and taxes: Estimating the tax sensitivity of leverage from state tax changes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 684-712.
    7. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
    8. Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble [Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 237-287.
    9. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    10. Ms. Nan Geng, 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/164, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Harris, Jack C, 1989. "The Effect of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, February.
    12. Chung-Yim Yiu & Chuyi Xiong & Ka-Shing Cheung, 2022. "An Extended Fama-French Multi-Factor Model in Direct Real Estate Investing," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    13. Steven N. Kaplan & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Berk A. Sensoy, 2013. "The Effects of Stock Lending on Security Prices: An Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1891-1936, October.
    14. Shi, Song & Jou, Jyh-Bang & Tripe, David, 2014. "Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-28.
    15. Denise DiPasquale & William C. Wheaton, 1992. "The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 181-198, June.
    16. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
    17. David Reeb & Mariko Sakakibara & Ishtiaq P Mahmood, 2012. "From the Editors: Endogeneity in international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 43(3), pages 211-218, April.
    18. Yinglu Deng & Li Liao & Jiaheng Yu & Yu Zhang, 2022. "Capital Spillover, House Prices, and Consumer Spending: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from House Purchase Restrictions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(6), pages 3060-3099.
    19. Jennifer Gippel & Tom Smith & Yushu Zhu, 2015. "Endogeneity in Accounting and Finance Research: Natural Experiments as a State-of-the-Art Solution," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 51(2), pages 143-168, June.
    20. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik & Aaron Smallwood, 2024. "Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply," Globalization Institute Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 153-167.
    3. Alessandra Canepa & Fawaz Khaled, 2018. "Housing, Housing Finance and Credit Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, May.
    4. Yongsheng Jiang & Dong Zhao & Andrew Sanderford & Jing Du, 2018. "Effects of Bank Lending on Urban Housing Prices for Sustainable Development: A Panel Analysis of Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Gianni La Cava, 2016. "Housing prices, mortgage interest rates and the rising share of capital income in the United States," BIS Working Papers 572, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Carlos Garriga & Athena Tsouderou & Pedro Gete, 2019. "Housing Dynamics without Homeowners. The Role of I," 2019 Meeting Papers 1407, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Adam M Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 669-707.
    8. Elliot Anenberg & Aurel Hizmo & Edward Kung & Raven Molloy, 2019. "Measuring mortgage credit availability: A frontier estimation approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 865-882, September.
    9. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    10. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. D’Acunto, Francesco & Liu, Ryan & Pflueger, Carolin & Weber, Michael, 2018. "Flexible prices and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 46-68.
    12. Basten, Christoph & Koch, Catherine, 2015. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Michael Brocker & Christopher Hanes, 2014. "The 1920s American Real Estate Boom and the Downturn of the Great Depression: Evidence from City Cross-Sections," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 161-201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Fabian Lindner, 2014. "The Interaction of Mortgage Credit and Housing Prices in the US," IMK Working Paper 133-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. José-Luis Peydró & Francesc R. Tous & Jagdish Tripathy & Arzu Uluc, 2020. "Macroprudential policy, mortgage cycles and distributional effects: Evidence from the UK," Economics Working Papers 1725, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2025. "Credit supply and house prices: Evidence from mortgage market segmentation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    17. Korevaar, Matthijs, 2023. "Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 273-296.
    18. Kun Duan & Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi & Simon Wolfe, 2019. "How Effective are Policy Interventions in a Spatially-Embedded International Real Estate Market?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 596-637, May.
    19. Bo Li, 2024. "Testing Business Cycle Theories: Evidence from the Great Recession," Papers 2403.04104, arXiv.org.
    20. Hilber, Christian Albin Lukas & Mense, Andreas, 2021. "Why have house prices risen so much more than rents in superstar cities?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:73-:d:1046707. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.