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A behavioral model of house prices

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  • Madsen, Jakob B.

Abstract

This paper proposes a model in which house prices are determined by economy-wide nominal income and nominal mortgage payments in the short run, while being determined by acquisition costs in the long run. The model, to a large extent, explains the 1995–2007 housing market run-up in the OECD countries by lower mortgage repayments, decreasing nominal interest rates, and increasing nominal GDP, partly induced by a large inflow of migrants. Empirical estimates give strong support for the model and suggest that it explains house prices in the OECD better than alternative models.

Suggested Citation

  • Madsen, Jakob B., 2012. "A behavioral model of house prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 21-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:82:y:2012:i:1:p:21-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.12.010
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    3. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    4. Singh, Bhupal, 2023. "Housing prices and macroprudential policies: Evidence from microdata," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    5. van der Drift, Rosa & de Haan, Jan & Boelhouwer, Peter, 2023. "Mortgage credit and house prices: The housing market equilibrium revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
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    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hesam Ghodsi & Muris Hadzic, 2021. "On the Link between House Prices and House Permits: Asymmetric Evidence from 51 States of the United States of America," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 323-361.
    8. An-Pin Wei & Wei-Ling Huang & Chih-Yuan Yang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2013. "The role of market imperfections in the relationship between housing prices and household credit: Evidence from Taiwan," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 27(2), pages 131-143, November.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Wu, Tsung-Pao, 2018. "Housing prices and real effective exchange rates in 18 OECD countries: A bootstrap multivariate panel Granger causality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 119-126.
    10. Meijers, Huub & Muysken, Joan, 2022. "The macroeconomic implications of financialisation on the wealth distribution," MERIT Working Papers 2022-035, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. Gary John Rangel & Jason Wei Jian Ng, 2017. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Singapore Private Residential Prices: A Markov-Switching Approach," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 15-31.
    12. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, 2022. "Household debt and macroeconomic stability: An empirical stock‐flow consistent model for the Danish economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 144-197, February.
    13. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori & Wang Chen, 2014. "House Prices and Stock Prices: Evidence from a Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel in China," Discussion Papers 1428, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    14. Jakob B. MADSEN & James B. ANG, 2014. "Finance-Led Growth in the OECD since the 19th century: How Does Financial Development Transmit To Growth?," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1408, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    15. Tripathi, Sabyasachi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Housing Prices: A Cross Country Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 98089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2019. "On the Link between Value of the Dollar and Housing Production in the U.S.: Evidence from State Level Data," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 231-274.
    17. Karpestam, Peter & Johansson, Sebastian, 2019. "Interest-only-mortgages and housing market fluctuations in Denmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    18. Apergis, Nicholas & Hayat, Tasawar & Kadasah, Nasser A., 2019. "Subjective well-being in housing purchasing: Evidence with survey data from the U.K. housing residential market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 328-335.
    19. Damen, Sven & Vastmans, Frank & Buyst, Erik, 2016. "The effect of mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-29.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavior of house prices; Institutions; Affordability; Financial innovations; Tobin's q;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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