IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v46y2023i10p3154-3181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of financial development on house prices

Author

Listed:
  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill
  • Kris Ivanovski
  • Kwabena Mintah
  • Quanda Zhang

Abstract

We examine the relationship between financial development and house prices in the Group of Seven (G7) countries over the period 1870–2016. We use parametric panel data models that incorporated interactive fixed effects and non‐parametric models that allow us to examine non‐linearities and the time‐varying nature of the relationship. Our parametric estimates show a positive relationship between financial development and house prices. The results from our non‐parametric model not only reinforce this finding but also shows evidence of a negative effect of financial development prior to the mid‐twentieth century, suggesting a time‐varying non‐linear impact. We find that inequality and mortgage loans are mechanisms through which financial development transmits to house prices. Financial crisis moderates the relationship between financial development and house prices, although this works only through sovereign defaults. Our findings are robust to a suite of robustness and sensitivity checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Kris Ivanovski & Kwabena Mintah & Quanda Zhang, 2023. "The impact of financial development on house prices," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(10), pages 3154-3181, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:46:y:2023:i:10:p:3154-3181
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13386
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/twec.13386?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodney Ramcharan & Christopher Crowe, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1085-1115, September.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Gustavsson, Magnus & Jordahl, Henrik, 2008. "Inequality and trust in Sweden: Some inequalities are more harmful than others," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 348-365, February.
    4. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    6. Katharina Knoll & Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2017. "No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 331-353, February.
    7. Johannes Stroebel & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1391-1436.
    8. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    9. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    10. Matteo Iacoviello, 2008. "Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963-2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 929-965, August.
    11. Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2000. "Financial markets and the allocation of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 187-214.
    12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    13. Bai, Jushan & Kao, Chihwa & Ng, Serena, 2009. "Panel cointegration with global stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 82-99, April.
    14. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    15. Edmond Berisha & John Meszaros, 2018. "Household Debt, Consumption, and Income Inequality," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 161-176, April.
    16. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    17. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    18. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
    19. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April.
    20. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    21. Alberto Alesina & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2011. "Segregation and the Quality of Government in a Cross Section of Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1872-1911, August.
    22. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-298, April.
    23. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    24. Mathonnat, Clément & Minea, Alexandru, 2018. "Financial development and the occurrence of banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 344-354.
    25. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    26. Madsen, Jakob B. & Islam, Md. Rabiul & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2018. "Inequality, financial development and economic growth in the OECD, 1870–2011," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 605-624.
    27. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
    28. Chiuri, Maria Concetta & Jappelli, Tullio, 2003. "Financial market imperfections and home ownership: A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 857-875, October.
    29. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2007. "Finance, inequality and the poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 27-49, March.
    30. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    31. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
    32. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, January.
    33. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Baako, Kingsley Tetteh & Mintah, Kwabena & Zhang, Quanda, 2021. "Transport infrastructure and house prices in the long run," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-12.
    34. Jakob B. Madsen & James B. Ang, 2016. "Finance-Led Growth in the OECD since the Nineteenth Century: How Does Financial Development Transmit to Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 552-572, July.
    35. Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Luc Laeven & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/044, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Johnson, Simon & Larson, William & Papageorgiou, Chris & Subramanian, Arvind, 2013. "Is newer better? Penn World Table Revisions and their impact on growth estimates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 255-274.
    37. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2003. "Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 20-34, January.
    38. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton, 1997. "A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(2), pages 151-172.
    39. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    40. Rodney Ramcharan & Christopher Crowe, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1085-1115, September.
    41. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
    42. Madsen, Jakob B., 2012. "A behavioral model of house prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 21-38.
    43. Edmond Berisha & John Meszaros & Eric Olson, 2015. "Income inequality and household debt: a cointegration test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1469-1473, December.
    44. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    45. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anjan K. Saha & Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2021. "Financial development and top income shares in OECD countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(3), pages 952-978, January.
    2. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Baako, Kingsley Tetteh & Mintah, Kwabena & Zhang, Quanda, 2021. "Transport infrastructure and house prices in the long run," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    4. Mathonnat, Clément & Williams, Benjamin, 2020. "Does more finance mean more inequality in times of crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    5. Paul Wachtel, 2018. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to Growth or Crisis?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 34-43, March.
    6. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2021. "When to Lean against the Wind," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 5-39, February.
    7. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    8. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2020. "Cross-border lending and the international transmission of banking crises," Discussion Papers 2020/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2022. "How did house and stock prices respond to different crisis episodes since the 1870s?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    10. Singh, Bhupal, 2023. "Housing prices and macroprudential policies: Evidence from microdata," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    11. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    12. Ulrike Malmendier & Alexandra Steiny Wellsjo, 2024. "Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership within and across Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1977-2023, June.
    13. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    14. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Chu, Lan Khanh & Chu, Hung Viet, 2020. "Is too much liquidity harmful to economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-242.
    16. Singh, Vinay Kumar & Ghosh, Sajal, 2021. "Financial inclusion and economic growth in India amid demonetization: A case study based on panel cointegration and causality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 674-693.
    17. Abebe Hailemariam & Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Kingsley Tetteh Baako, 2021. "Income inequality and housing prices in the very long‐run," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 295-321, July.
    18. You, Yu & Lee, Junsoo & Kim, Yoonbai & Yang, Zheng, 2024. "Comovement and Global Imbalances of Current Accounts," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).
    19. Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    20. Clément Mathonnat & Alexandru Minea & Marcel Voia, 2022. "Does more finance lead to longer crises?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 111-135, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:46:y:2023:i:10:p:3154-3181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.