IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-10-00687.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial Autoregressive Models for House Price Dynamics in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Tiziana Caliman

    (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods - University of Genoa)

  • Enrico di Bella

    (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods - University of Genoa)

Abstract

This paper elaborates a Spatial Autoregressive and Spatial Error Model (SAR-SE Model) to investigate the Italian house price dynamics. House prices in real terms have been modelled for the period 1995-2008 in all the 103 Italian provinces along with affordability ratio, persistency term, some social-economic variables and credit market variables. One of the key results of this paper, is the evidence on house price spatial autocorrelation, verified through the Baltagi, Song and Koh (2003) LM test. On the contrary, no evidence of housing price overvaluation has been found, in comparison with the fundamental values determined by interest rates, households income, rents, employment and construction cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiziana Caliman & Enrico di Bella, 2011. "Spatial Autoregressive Models for House Price Dynamics in Italy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1837-1855.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00687
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I2-P167.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    2. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
    3. Harry H. Kelejian & Dennis P. Robinson, 1993. "A Suggested Method Of Estimation For Spatial Interdependent Models With Autocorrelated Errors, And An Application To A County Expenditure Model," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 297-312, July.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    5. Luigi Cannari & Francesco Nucci & Paolo Sestito, 2000. "Geographic labour mobility and the cost of housing: evidence from Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(14), pages 1899-1906.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    7. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    8. Poterba, James M, 1992. "Taxation and Housing: Old Questions, New Answers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 237-242, May.
    9. Alan E. Gelfand & Mark D. Ecker & John R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans, 2004. "The Dynamics of Location in Home Price," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 149-166, September.
    10. Gelfand A.E. & Kim H-J. & Sirmans C.F. & Banerjee S., 2003. "Spatial Modeling With Spatially Varying Coefficient Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 387-396, January.
    11. Tiziana Caliman, 2009. "The risk of falling house prices in Italy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(4), pages 401-423, December.
    12. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-533, May.
    13. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    14. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario & Pfaffermayr, Michael & Walde, Janette, 2009. "Small sample properties of maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments based tests for spatially autocorrelated errors," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 670-678, November.
    15. Andrea Finicelli, 2007. "House price developments and fundamentals in the United States," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 7, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    17. Baltagi, Badi H. & Song, Seuck Heun & Koh, Won, 2003. "Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 123-150, November.
    18. Tony Smith & Peggy Wu, 2009. "A spatio-temporal model of housing prices based on individual sales transactions over time," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 333-355, December.
    19. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Hua Sun & Yong Tu & Shi-Ming Yu, 2005. "A Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Model for Multi-Unit Residential Market Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 155-187, September.
    21. Can, Ayse & Megbolugbe, Isaac, 1997. "Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 203-222, Jan.-Marc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bianca Biagi & Maria Giovanna Brandano & Steven B. Caudill, 2016. "Tourism and house prices in Italy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 964-978, October.
    2. Bianca Biagi & Maria G. Brandano & Dionysia Lambiri, 2015. "Does Tourism Affect House Prices? Evidence from Italy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 501-528, September.
    3. Stanley McGreal & Paloma Taltavull de La Paz, 2013. "Implicit House Prices: Variation over Time and Space in Spain," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(10), pages 2024-2043, August.
    4. Samantha Leorato & Maura Mezzetti, 2015. "Spatial Panel Data Model with error dependence: a Bayesian Separable Covariance Approach," CEIS Research Paper 338, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Apr 2015.
    5. B. Biagi & MG. Brandano & D. Lambiri, 2012. "Does tourism affect house prices? Some evidence from Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 201227, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caliman, Tiziana & Di Bella, Enrico, 2011. "House Price Dynamics in Italy - La dinamica delle quotazioni immobiliari in Italia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(1), pages 37-65.
    2. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
    3. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
    4. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    5. repec:tur:wpaper:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Madsen, Jakob B., 2012. "A behavioral model of house prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 21-38.
    7. Christian Hott, 2007. "Explaining house price fluctuations," Proceedings 1055, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen, 2013. "Testing for rational bubbles in the US housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 369-381.
    9. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    10. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    11. Thanos, Sotirios & Dubé, Jean & Legros, Diègo, 2016. "Putting time into space: the temporal coherence of spatial applications in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-88.
    12. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    13. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "The Time-Series Properties of House Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 339-361, April.
    14. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    15. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," Working papers 02, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    16. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    17. Benati, Luca, 2021. "Leaning against house prices: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 399-412.
    18. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese & Sven Knoth, 2012. "Eyes Wide Shut? The U.S. House Market Bubble through the Lense of Statistical Process Control," CESifo Working Paper Series 3962, CESifo.
    19. Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-54.
    20. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2019. "Size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5268-5281, October.
    21. Yongqiang Chu, 2014. "Credit constraints, inelastic supply, and the housing boom," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 52-69, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; fundamentals; mean reversion; serial correlation; spatial dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.