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The effect of mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics on house prices

Author

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  • Damen, Sven
  • Vastmans, Frank
  • Buyst, Erik

Abstract

In many countries, house prices are overvalued according to price-to-income ratios. We propose that the borrower’s ability to pay (ATP) through a mortgage is a long-run house price fundamental and find convincing evidence by means of cointegration tests, granger causality, and an elasticity of house prices with respect to ATP close to one. ATP incorporates the effect of a decreasing trend in interest rates, changes in mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics. We apply the model to the United States of America, United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark. The results provide an intuitive alternative to standard house price models.

Suggested Citation

  • Damen, Sven & Vastmans, Frank & Buyst, Erik, 2016. "The effect of mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:34:y:2016:i:c:p:15-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2016.06.002
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    8. Renaud Le Goix & Laure Casanova Enault & Loïc Bonneval & Thibault Le Corre & Eliza Benites‐Gambirazio & Guilhem Boulay & William Kutz & Natacha Aveline‐Dubach & Julien Migozzi & Ronan Ysebaert, 2021. "Housing (In)Equity and the Spatial Dynamics of Homeownership in France: A Research Agenda," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 112(1), pages 62-80, February.
    9. Wei Hu & Shanggang Yin & Haibo Gong, 2022. "Spatial–Temporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of China’s Urban Housing Price-to-Income Ratio," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Karpestam, Peter & Johansson, Sebastian, 2019. "Interest-only-mortgages and housing market fluctuations in Denmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    11. Galesi, Alessandro & Mata, Nuria & Rey, David & Schmitz, Sebastian & Schuffels, Johannes, 2020. "Regional Housing Market Conditions in Spain," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    12. Austin J. Drukker, 2021. "Implications of a Mortgage Interest Credit for the United States," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(4), pages 573-588, July.
    13. Renaud Le Goix & Laure Casanova Enault & Loïc Bonneval & Thibault Le Corre & Eliza Benites-Gambirazio & Guilhem Boulay & William Kutz & Natacha Aveline-Dubach & Julien Migozzi & Ronan Ysebaert, 2021. "Housing (In)Equity and the Spatial Dynamics of Homeownership in France: A Research Agenda," Post-Print halshs-02916066, HAL.
    14. Damen, Sven & Schildermans, Stef, 2022. "Capital requirements, mortgage rates and house prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Price-to-income ratio; House price fundamentals; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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