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Promotion of (interaction) abstinence increases infection prevalence

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  • Heinsalu, Sander

Abstract

This paper analyses how promoting social distancing changes infection rates and welfare. In the pool of people seeking personal contacts, a greater preference for distance increases the prevalence of infection and worsens everyone’s welfare. In contrast, prevention and treatment reduce prevalence and improve payoffs. The results are driven by adverse selection—people who prefer more matches are likelier disease carriers. A given decrease in the number of matches is a smaller proportional reduction for people with many contacts, thus increases the fraction of infected in the pool. The greater disease risk further decreases contact-seeking and payoffs.

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  • Heinsalu, Sander, 2021. "Promotion of (interaction) abstinence increases infection prevalence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 94-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:186:y:2021:i:c:p:94-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.03.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adverse selection; Asymmetric information; Epidemiology; Infectious disease;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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