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Can Having Fewer Partners Increase Prevalence of Aids?

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  • Michael Kremer

Abstract

Under asymmetric information about sexual history, sexual activity creates externalities. Abstinence by those with few partners perversely increases the average probability of HIV infection in the pool of available partners. Since this increases prevalence among the high activity people who disproportionately influence the disease's future spread, it may increase long-run prevalence. Preliminary calculations using standard epidemiological models and survey data on sexual activity suggest that most people have few enough partners that further reductions would increase steady-state prevalence. To the extent the results prove robust, they suggest that public health messages will be more likely to reduce steady-state prevalence and create positive externalities if they stress condom use rather than abstinence.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kremer, 1994. "Can Having Fewer Partners Increase Prevalence of Aids?," NBER Working Papers 4942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4942
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
    2. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heinsalu, Sander, 2020. "Investing to access an adverse selection market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Heinsalu, Sander, 2021. "Promotion of (interaction) abstinence increases infection prevalence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 94-112.
    3. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rody Manuelli & Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis, 2012. "A Quantitative Theory of HIV Diffusion," 2012 Meeting Papers 1101, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Sander Heinsalu, 2019. "When abstinence increases prevalence," Papers 1905.02073, arXiv.org.

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