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Everyone believes in redemption: Nudges and overoptimism in costly task completion

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  • Tasoff, Joshua
  • Letzler, Robert

Abstract

We elicit subjects’ beliefs about the likelihood that they will redeem a mail-in form. Expected redemption rates exceed actual redemption rates by 49 percentage points, meaning that subjects are overoptimistic about their likelihood of redemption. We test the impact of three “nudges” on overoptimism: (1) informing subjects about a previous cohort's redemption rates, (2) reminding subjects about the redemption deadline, and (3) reducing transaction costs. The first two treatments reduced overoptimism by 7 and 8 percentage points respectively, but these effects were not significant. Only the third nudge had a significant effect and it reduced overoptimism by 26 percentage points. All three nudges increased redemption but had no statistically significant effect on beliefs. Our results suggest that weak cost-salience is an important mechanism for overoptimism.

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  • Tasoff, Joshua & Letzler, Robert, 2014. "Everyone believes in redemption: Nudges and overoptimism in costly task completion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PA), pages 107-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:107:y:2014:i:pa:p:107-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2014.08.011
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    2. Ori Heffetz & Ted O'Donoghue & Henry S. Schneider, 2016. "Forgetting and Heterogeneity in Task Delay: Evidence from New York City Parking-Ticket Recipients," NBER Working Papers 23012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kai Barron & Mette Trier Damgaard & Christina Gravert, 2022. "When Do Reminders Work? Memory Constraints and Medical Adherence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9996, CESifo.
    4. Damgaard, Mette Trier & Gravert, Christina, 2018. "The hidden costs of nudging: Experimental evidence from reminders in fundraising," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 15-26.
    5. Christina Gravert, 2024. "From Intent to Inertia: Experimental Evidence from the Retail Electricity Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 11139, CESifo.
    6. Shanshan Hu & Xing Hu & Qing Ye, 2017. "Optimal Rebate Strategies Under Dynamic Pricing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(6), pages 1546-1561, December.
    7. Sina Shahab & Leonhard K. Lades, 2020. "Sludge and Transaction Costs," Working Papers 202007, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    8. Jorge Vieira & Rui Frade & Raquel Ascenso & Inês Prates & Filipa Martinho, 2020. "Generation Z and Key-Factors on E-Commerce: A Study on the Portuguese Tourism Sector," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Idris Adjerid & Rachael Purta & Aaron Striegel & George Loewenstein, 2018. "Aggressive Economic Incentives and Physical Activity: The Role of Choice and Technology Decision Aids," Papers 1810.06698, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    10. Rodemeier, Matthias, 2021. "Buy baits and consumer sophistication: Theory and field evidence from large-scale rebate promotions," CAWM Discussion Papers 124, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    11. Lucie Martin & Liam Delaney & Orla Doyle, 2022. "Everyday Administrative Burdens and Inequality," Working Papers 202202, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    12. Ericson, Keith M. Marzilli, 2020. "When consumers do not make an active decision: Dynamic default rules and their equilibrium effects," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 369-385.
    13. Royal, Andrew & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "When higher productivity hurts: The interaction between overconfidence and capital," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 131-142.
    14. Emma Boswell Dean & Frank Schilbach & Heather Schofield, 2017. "Poverty and Cognitive Function," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Poverty Traps, pages 57-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Erin T. Bronchetti & Judd B. Kessler & Ellen B. Magenheim & Dmitry Taubinsky & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Is Attention Produced Rationally?," Working Papers 2020-91, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    16. Currie, Shane & Mizerski, Dick, 2016. "Rebate redemption requirements – Can they discourage redeeming?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 117-126.
    17. Erin T. Bronchetti & Judd B. Kessler & Ellen B. Magenheim & Dmitry Taubinsky & Eric Zwick, 2023. "Is Attention Produced Optimally? Theory and Evidence From Experiments With Bandwidth Enhancements," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 669-707, March.
    18. Delu Wang & Yadong Wang & Jingyuan Yang & Ziyang Huang & Rong Cui, 2021. "Managerial Cognitive Bias, Business Transformation, and Firm Performance: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440219, March.
    19. Heger, Stephanie A. & Papageorge, Nicholas W., 2018. "We should totally open a restaurant: How optimism and overconfidence affect beliefs," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 177-190.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overoptimism; Overconfidence; Nudges; Rebates; Weak cost-salience;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection

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