IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v41y2014icp109-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds

Author

Listed:
  • Sibbertsen, Philipp
  • Wegener, Christoph
  • Basse, Tobias

Abstract

This study tests for a break in the persistence of EMU government bond yield spreads examining data from France, Italy and Spain and using German interest rates as a kind of benchmark. The results reported here provide evidence for breaks between 2006 and 2008. The persistence of the yield spreads against German government bonds has increased significantly after this period. This could be a sign of higher sovereign credit risk (and possibly even redenomination risk) caused by the debt crisis in the euro area. We find clear indications for non-stationary behavior after the breakpoints and empirical evidence for positive excess kurtosis and GARCH-effects when persistence increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:109-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426614000119
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.01.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002. "Was There Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the Eve of Emu? the German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 185-207, November.
    2. Ola Melander & Malika Pant & Miguel Segoviano & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2011. "Dancing Spreads: Market Assessment of Contagion from the Crisis in the Euro Periphery based on Distress Dependence Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 347-363, August.
    3. Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Testing for a break in persistence under long‐range dependencies," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 263-285, May.
    4. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    5. Philipp Sibbertsen & Juliane Willert, 2012. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies and mean shifts," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 357-370, May.
    6. Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
    7. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John, 2006. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 469-482, March.
    8. Charles Pigott, 1993. "International interest rate convergence: a survey of the issues and evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Win), pages 24-37.
    9. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae‐Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares‐Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, May.
    10. Jesper Lund, 1999. "A Model for Studying the Effect of EMU on European Yield Curves," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(3), pages 321-363.
    11. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, January.
    12. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    13. Angelos Kanas, 1997. "The monetary exchange rate model within the ERM: cointegration tests and implications concerning the German dominance hypothesis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 587-598.
    14. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Wolters, Jurgen, 1987. "U.S.-European Interest Rate Linkage: A Time Series Analysis for West Germany, Switzerland, and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 675-684, November.
    15. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Evolution of International Stock and Bond Market Integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 12, pages 391-428, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. N. Apergis & E. Mamatzakis & C. Staikuras, 2011. "The Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis: Testing for Regime Changes," Working Paper series 16_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    17. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2000. "Regionalisation versus globalisation in European financial market integration: Evidence from co-integration analyses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1005-1043, June.
    18. Nicholas Apergis & Emmanuel Mamatzakis & Christos Staikouras, 2011. "Testing for Regime Changes in Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 258-273, August.
    19. Rose, Andrew, 2007. "Checking out: exits from currency unions," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 121-128.
    20. Michael Frömmel & Robinson Kruse, 2012. "Testing for a rational bubble under long memory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1723-1732, November.
    21. repec:bil:bilpap:0501 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 990-1004.
    23. Fernando M. Martin & Christopher J. Waller, 2012. "Sovereign debt: a modern Greek tragedy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 321-340.
    24. Stilianos Fountas & Jyh-Lin Wu, 1998. "Tests for interest rate convergence and structural breaks in the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 127-132.
    25. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
    26. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    27. Florian Heinen & Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," CREATES Research Papers 2009-53, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    28. Hauser, Michael A, 1997. "Semiparametric and Nonparametric Testing for Long Memory: A Monte Carlo Study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 247-271.
    29. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    30. Becker, Bettina & Hall, Stephen, 2007. "Measuring convergence of the new member countries’ exchange rates to the euro," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 20-25.
    31. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    32. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
    33. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:258-273 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-6.
    35. Basse, Tobias, 2006. "Floating exchange rates and inflation in Germany: Are external shocks really irrelevant?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 393-397, December.
    36. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
    37. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    38. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
    39. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordon Ez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "Tests for interest rate convergence and structural breaks in the EMS: further analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 447-456.
    40. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Vanessa Smith & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Tests for a change in persistence against the null of difference-stationarity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 291-311, December.
    41. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    42. Siklos, Pierre L & Wohar, Mark E, 1997. "Convergence in Interest Rates and Inflation Rates across Countries and over Time," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 129-141, February.
    43. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.
    44. Kang, Hyunju, 2013. "Behind the scenes of abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3145-3156.
    45. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, "undated". "There was monetary autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU?. The German dominance hypothesis re-examined," Studies on the Spanish Economy 52, FEDEA.
    46. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    47. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    48. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2007. "Unit root log periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 104-124, May.
    49. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:347-363 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 990-1004.
    2. Michael Frömmel & Robinson Kruse, 2012. "Testing for a rational bubble under long memory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1723-1732, November.
    3. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Philippas, Dionisis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2013. "Putting the “C” into crisis: Contagion, correlations and copulas on EMU bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 161-176.
    6. Assaf, Ata & Bhandari, Avishek & Charif, Husni & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Multivariate long memory structure in the cryptocurrency market: The impact of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Convergence patterns in sovereign bond yield spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-139.
    8. Christoph Wegener & Tobias Basse & Philipp Sibbertsen & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2019. "Liquidity risk and the covered bond market in times of crisis: empirical evidence from Germany," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 407-426, November.
    9. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & Philipp Sibbertsen & Michelle Voges, 2024. "The stability of government bond markets’ equilibrium and the interdependence of lending rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2503-2538, December.
    10. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse, Robinson & Basse, Tobias, 2019. "The walking debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 382-402.
    11. Borri, Nicola, 2018. "Local currency systemic risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-123.
    12. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2017. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-62.
    13. Kunze, Frederik & Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph & Spiwoks, Markus, 2018. "The emergence of the RMB: A "New Normal" for China's exchange rate system?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 348, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Dionisis Philippas & Costas Siriopoulos, 2014. "Money factors and EMU government bond markets' convergence," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 156-167, May.
    15. Alexander Ludwig, 2014. "Credit risk-free sovereign bonds under Solvency II: a cointegration analysis with consistently estimated structural breaks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(12), pages 811-823, June.
    16. Florian Heinen & Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," CREATES Research Papers 2009-53, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Luis F. Martins & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2022. "Tests for segmented cointegration: an application to US governments budgets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 567-600, August.
    18. Chen, Zhanshou & Jin, Zi & Tian, Zheng & Qi, Peiyan, 2012. "Bootstrap testing multiple changes in persistence for a heavy-tailed sequence," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 2303-2316.
    19. Wingert, Simon & Mboya, Mwasi Paza & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "Distinguishing between breaks in the mean and breaks in persistence under long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    20. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "The memory of stock return volatility: Asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Testing uncovered interest parity; Fractional integration; Changing persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:109-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.