IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/han/dpaper/dp-381.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies

Author

Listed:
  • Sibbertsen, Philipp
  • Kruse, Robinson

Abstract

We show that tests for a break in the persistence of a time series in the classical I(0) - I(1) framework have serious size distortions when the actual data generating process exhibits long-range dependencies. We prove that the limiting distribution of a CUSUM of squares based test depends on the true memory parameter if the DGP exhibits long memory. We propose adjusted critical values for the test and give finite sample response curves which allow the practitioner to easily implement the test and to compute the relevant critical values. We furthermore prove consistency of the test and prove consistency for a simple break point estimator also under long memory. We show that the test has satisfying power properties when the correct critical values are used.

Suggested Citation

  • Sibbertsen, Philipp & Kruse, Robinson, 2007. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-381, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-381.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae‐Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares‐Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, May.
    2. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    3. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
    4. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, September.
    5. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168, December.
    6. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Vanessa Smith & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Tests for a change in persistence against the null of difference-stationarity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 291-311, December.
    7. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
    8. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
    9. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    10. Kim, Jae-Young & Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Amador, Rosa Badillo, 2002. "Corrigendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series" [J. Econom. 95 (2000) 97-116]," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 389-392, August.
    11. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    12. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian Heinen & Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," CREATES Research Papers 2009-53, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Martins, Luis F. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2014. "Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-522.
    3. Heinen, Florian & Willert, Juliane, 2011. "Monitoring a change in persistence of a long range dependent time series," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-479, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Martha Misas, 2011. "La persistencia estadística de la inflación en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(65), pages 224-266, June.
    5. Kruse Robinson & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Noriega Antonio E., 2017. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-28, June.
    6. Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 990-1004.
    7. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Testing for a Change in Persistence in the Presence of a Volatility Shift," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 761-781, December.
    8. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
    9. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    10. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    11. Uwe Hassler & Barbara Meller, 2014. "Detecting multiple breaks in long memory the case of U.S. inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 653-680, March.
    12. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
    13. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    14. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Targeting: New Evidence from Fractional Integration and Cointegration," Working papers 2016-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:24:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2008. "Testing for a change in persistence in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 84-98, November.
    17. Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2007. "Change in persistence tests for panels," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07040, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    18. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
    19. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2011. "Detecting changes from short to long memory," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 847-870, November.
    20. Hirsch, Tristan & Rinke, Saskia, 2017. "Changes in Persistence in Outlier Contaminated Time Series," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-583, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    21. Zsolt Darvas & Balẳ Varga, 2014. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1437-1448, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    break in pesistence; long memory; CUSUM of squares based test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Heidrich, Christian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwhande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.