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Dancing Spreads: Market Assessment of Contagion from the Crisis in the Euro Periphery based on Distress Dependence Analysis

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  • Ola Melander
  • Malika Pant
  • Miguel Segoviano
  • Athanasios Vamvakidis

Abstract

The crisis in the eurozone periphery has so far affected markets substantially more than the size of the countries in the region would suggest. Data on direct exposures and simple correlations also fail to explain the cross-border impact of the crisis. Following Segoviano ( 2006 ), this paper uses distress dependence analysis to measure market assessment of contagion risks from Greece and Ireland to the rest of Europe during the peaks of the crises in these countries. The results provide insights to possible contagion risks through cross-border negative feedback loops between sovereigns and banking sectors in Europe that help explain the severe impact of the crisis. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Ola Melander & Malika Pant & Miguel Segoviano & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2011. "Dancing Spreads: Market Assessment of Contagion from the Crisis in the Euro Periphery based on Distress Dependence Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 347-363, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:347-363:10.1007/s11294-011-9309-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-011-9309-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Goodhart, Charles, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," IMF Working Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
    6. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Vivek Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 24-40, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Indermit S Gill & Naotaka Sugawara & Juan Zalduendo, 2014. "The Center Still Holds: Financial Integration in the Euro Area," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 351-375, September.
    2. Panagiotis Petrakis & Emmanuel Papadakis & Nikoleta Daniilopoulou, 2012. "Public Statements on Sovereign Yield Spreads:The Greek Case," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 6(2), pages 5-16, December.
    3. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    4. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
    5. Samuel Brazys & Niamh Hardiman, 2013. "From Tiger to PIIGS: Ireland and the use of heuristics in comparative political economy," Working Papers 201316, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign spreads; Market price of risk; Euro area; Contagion; E43; E44; G01; G10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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