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The monetary exchange rate model within the ERM: cointegration tests and implications concerning the German dominance hypothesis

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  • Angelos Kanas

Abstract

This paper examines whether the monetary exchange rate model represents a long-run relationship among nominal exchange rates, money supplies, interest rates and real incomes of five countries that participate in the ERM. Cointegration tests are conducted using the method suggested by Johansen and Juselius (1990). The results strongly support the hypothesis of cointegration for all ten ERM country-pairs considered. Furthermore, multiple cointegrating vectors are found for all cases. These results can be interpreted as evidence that the monetary model represents a stable long-run relationship for all ERM countries considered. Finally, the monetary model is used as a basis for testing the German dominance hypothesis. The results support this hypothesis only for one country

Suggested Citation

  • Angelos Kanas, 1997. "The monetary exchange rate model within the ERM: cointegration tests and implications concerning the German dominance hypothesis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 587-598.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:7:y:1997:i:6:p:587-598
    DOI: 10.1080/758533850
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    Cited by:

    1. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
    2. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2004. "European and international asymmetry in the volatility transmission mechanism: the "German Dominance Hypothesis" revisited," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 75-97.
    3. Abdalrahman AbuDalu & Elsadig Musa Ahmed, 2013. "The long and short run forcing variables of purchasing power parity of ASEAN-5," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 066-081.
    4. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2005. "ERM effects on currency spot and futures markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-163, December.
    5. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.

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