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Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union

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  • Frömmel, Michael
  • Kruse, Robinson

Abstract

We analyze the convergence of interest rates in the European Monetary System (EMS) in a novel framework of changing persistence. Due to the specific historical situation in the EMS interest rate differentials were non-stationary before full convergence was achieved. After full convergence has taken place, interest rate differentials became stationary. The applied econometric approach allows us to estimate the exact dates of full convergence endogenously. Our empirical results suggest remarkable differences in the estimated convergence dates for Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Italy which are highly related to steps of European integration policies. We conclude that credibility of monetary policy is of paramount importance for establishing a monetary union successfully. This finding has significant implications for future member states of the EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 990-1004.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:6:p:990-1004
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.08.002
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    4. Ingo G. Bordon & Kai Daniel Schmid & Michael Schmidt, 2014. "Hypnosis Before Wake-up Call? The Revival of Sovereign Credit Risk Perception in the EMU-Crisis," IMK Working Paper 138-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2017. "Eurozone debt crisis and bond yields convergence: evidence from the new EU countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 239-258, August.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Convergence patterns in sovereign bond yield spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-139.
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    8. Schmid, Kai Daniel & Schmidt, Michael, 2012. "EMU, the changing role of public debt and the revival of sovereign credit risk perception," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 48, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    9. Kai Daniel Schmid & Michael Schmidt, 2012. "EMU and the Renaissance of Sovereign Credit Risk Perception," IAW Discussion Papers 87, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    10. Christoph Wegener & Tobias Basse & Philipp Sibbertsen & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2019. "Liquidity risk and the covered bond market in times of crisis: empirical evidence from Germany," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 407-426, November.
    11. Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 990-1004.
    12. Robinson Kruse & Christoph Wegener, 2019. "Explosive behaviour and long memory with an application to European bond yield spreads," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 139-153, February.
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    14. Kerkemeier, Marco & Kruse-Becher, Robinson, 2022. "Join the club! Dynamics of global ESG indices convergence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Convergence; Changing persistence; EMS; EMU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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