IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/47424.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did Credit Decouple from Output in the Great Moderation?

Author

Listed:
  • Grydaki, Maria
  • Bezemer, Dirk

Abstract

The U.S. during the 1984-2007 Great Moderation saw unusual macroeconomic stability combined with strong growth in asset prices and in credit relative to output. The distribution of credit shifted towards the financial and real estate sectors. The literature shows that each of these trends increases financial fragility, suggesting that the Great Moderation stability was destabilizing. We explore this interpretation by testing the Allen and Gale (2000) bubble feature that credit growth was driven more by past credit growth and less by output growth. We test this distinguishing between credit to asset markets and credit to the nonfinancial sectors. Results from a VAR model estimated on quarterly data for 1955-2007 suggest that the causal relations of credit aggregates and output differed before the Great Moderation and during the Great Moderation, along the lines we hypothesize. This invites a reinterpretation of the Great Moderation, and may help understand when a credit boom turns into a credit bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "Did Credit Decouple from Output in the Great Moderation?," MPRA Paper 47424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47424
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47424/1/MPRA_paper_47424.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the U.S. External Imbalance," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 209-225, December.
    2. Beck Thorsten & Büyükkarabacak Berrak & Rioja Felix K. & Valev Neven T., 2012. "Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending Across Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-46, March.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. JONATHAN McCARTHY & EGON ZAKRAJSEK, 2007. "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 591-613, March.
    6. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    7. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    9. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    10. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "What moves GNP?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 636, Econometric Society.
    12. repec:bla:scotjp:v:48:y:2001:i:5:p:547-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    14. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    15. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
    16. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    17. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    18. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-826, June.
    19. Wynne Godley & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Debt And Lending: A Cri De Coeur," Economics Policy Note Archive 06-4, Levy Economics Institute.
    20. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2008. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 120-144, spring.
    21. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 668-687, July.
    22. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    23. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2012. "Did the Recent Housing Boom Signal the Global Financial Crisis?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(3), pages 999-1018, January.
    24. Veblen, Thorstein, 1904. "Theory of Business Enterprise," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number veblen1904.
    25. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    26. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    28. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 183-202.
    29. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Peter Howells, 2001. "Money, Credit and Spending: Drawing Causal Inferences," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(5), pages 547-557, November.
    31. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    32. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The role of household and business credit in banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1247-1256, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hense, Florian, 2015. "Interest rate elasticity of bank loans: The case for sector-specific capital requirements," CFS Working Paper Series 504, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Financial fragility in the Great Moderation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 169-177.
    2. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2013. "Debt and the U.S. Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 47399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    4. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Nonfinancial sectors debt and the U.S. great moderation," Research Report 14030-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    5. repec:dgr:rugsom:14030-gem is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dirk Bezemer & Maria Grydaki & Lu Zhang, 2016. "More Mortgages, Lower Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 652-674, January.
    8. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    9. repec:dgr:rugsom:14016-gem is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria & Zhang, Lu, 2014. "Is financial development bad for growth?," Research Report 14016-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    11. Bofinger, Peter & Geißendörfer, Lisa & Haas, Thomas & Mayer, Fabian, 2021. "Discovering the True Schumpeter - New Insights into the Finance and Growth Nexus," CEPR Discussion Papers 16851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2023. "Credit, banking fragility, and economic performance," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 553-573.
    13. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    14. Norman Loayza & Amine Ouazad & Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?," Working Papers 114, Peruvian Economic Association.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2qqgdhhldi83pq6n0hl9nrguki is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4712tvppdq9m6q5i7t579thpvf is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Financialisation risks and economic performance," Working Papers hal-03471756, HAL.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4712tvppdq9m6q5i7t579thpvf is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2qqgdhhldi83pq6n0hl9nrguki is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    21. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    22. Stewart, Robert & Chowdhury, Murshed & Arjoon, Vaalmikki, 2021. "Interdependencies between regulatory capital, credit extension and economic growth," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    23. Giorgio Fagiolo & Daniele Giachini & Andrea Roventini, 2020. "Innovation, finance, and economic growth: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(3), pages 703-736, July.
    24. Dirk Bezemer, 2012. "Credit cycles," Chapters, in: Jan Toporowski & Jo Michell (ed.), Handbook of Critical Issues in Finance, chapter 10, pages i-ii, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2015. "Financial stability and economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-40.
    26. Necati Tekatli, 2007. "Understanding Sources of the Change in International Business Cycles," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 731.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    great moderation; credit; output; VAR; financial fragility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47424. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.