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The Economy As A Complex System: The Balance Sheet Dimension

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  • DIRK J BEZEMER

    (University of Groningen, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Given the economy's complex behavior and sudden transitions as evidenced in the 2007–2008 crisis, agent-based models are widely considered a promising alternative to current macroeconomic research dominated by DSGE models. Their failure is commonly interpreted as a failure to incorporate heterogeneous interacting agents. This paper explains that complex behavior and sudden transitions also arise from the economy's financial structure as reflected in its balance sheets, not just from heterogeneous interacting agents. It introduces "flow-of-funds" or "accounting" models, which were pre eminent in successful anticipations of the recent crisis. In illustration, a simple balance sheet model of the economy is developed to demonstrate that non-linear behavior and sudden transition may arise from the economy's balance sheet structure, even without any micro-foundations. The paper concludes by discussing one recent example of combining flow-of-funds and agent-based models. This appears a promising avenue for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk J Bezemer, 2012. "The Economy As A Complex System: The Balance Sheet Dimension," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:15:y:2012:i:supp0:n:s0219525912500476
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219525912500476
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    1. David Colander & Peter Howitt & Alan Kirman & Axel Leijonhufvud & Perry Mehrling, 2018. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: How Economics Should Be Done, chapter 14, pages 212-216, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. L. Randall Wray & Mathew Forstater (ed.), 2006. "Money, Financial Instability and Stabilization Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3902.
    3. Wynne Godley & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Debt And Lending: A Cri De Coeur," Economics Policy Note Archive 06-4, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Graziani,Augusto, 2003. "The Monetary Theory of Production," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521812115, October.
    5. Mr. Dennis P Botman & David Rose & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2007. "DSGE Modeling at the Fund: Applications and Further Developments," IMF Working Papers 2007/200, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    2. Eliana Lauretta & Sajid M. Chaudhry & Daniel Santamaria, 2023. "Unveiling the black swan of the finance‐growth Nexus: Assumptions and preliminary evidence of virtuous and unvirtuous cycles," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3749-3773, October.
    3. Fabrizio Battisti & Orazio Campo, 2021. "The Assessment of Density Bonus in Building Renovation Interventions. The Case of the City of Florence in Italy," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Lauretta, Eliana, 2018. "The hidden soul of financial innovation: An agent-based modelling of home mortgage securitization and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 51-73.
    5. Piotr Łasak & Sławomir Wyciślak, 2022. "Dynamics in Complex Systems Amidst Crisis 2008+: Financial Regulatory and Supervisory Reflections," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Xiong, Wanting & Wang, Yougui, 2022. "A reformulation of the bank lending channel under multiple prudential regulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Lauretta, Eliana & Chaudhry, Sajid & Mullineux, Andy, 2015. "Theory and Evidence on the Finance-Growth Relationship: The Virtuous and Unvirtuous Cycles," MPRA Paper 70613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Li, Boyao, 2017. "The impact of the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio on macroeconomic stability: An agent-based approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Michael S. Harr'e, 2018. "Multi-agent Economics and the Emergence of Critical Markets," Papers 1809.01332, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit crisis; finance; complex systems; DSGE; agent-based models; stock-flow consistent models; B52; E32; E37; E44; C63;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B52 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Modern Monetary Theory;
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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