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Debiased expert forecasts in continuous-time asset allocation

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  • Davis, Mark
  • Lleo, Sébastien

Abstract

Expert forecasts are an essential component of asset management and an important research topic. However, the effect of behavioral biases on expert forecasts is generally ignored. This paper examines the effect of biased expert forecasts on asset allocations. We find that biases have a significant impact on portfolios, explaining nearly 70% of excess risk-taking in our implementation. To address the effect of behavioral biases, we propose an integrated behavioral continuous-time portfolio selection model which we solve in closed form. The model applies general principles to identify and reduce the impact of five main behavioral biases. This paper concludes with a new personal fractional Kelly decomposition to account for the effect of opinions on the optimal asset allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Mark & Lleo, Sébastien, 2020. "Debiased expert forecasts in continuous-time asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:113:y:2020:i:c:s0378426620300261
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization under Partial Information with Expert Opinions: a Dynamic Programming Approach," Papers 1303.2513, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
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    3. Mark H A Davis & Sébastien Lleo, 2014. "Risk-Sensitive Investment Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9026, August.
    4. Rüdiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2012. "Portfolio Optimization Under Partial Information With Expert Opinions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Matheus R Grasselli & Lane P Hughston (ed.), Finance at Fields, chapter 11, pages 265-282, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    7. Dimitris Bertsimas & Vishal Gupta & Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis, 2012. "Inverse Optimization: A New Perspective on the Black-Litterman Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1389-1403, December.
    8. Rüdiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2012. "Portfolio Optimization Under Partial Information With Expert Opinions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-18.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    10. Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Jorn Sass & Ralf Wunderlich, 2014. "Expert Opinions and Logarithmic Utility Maximization in a Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1402.6313, arXiv.org.
    11. Thomas M. Cover, 1991. "Universal Portfolios," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
    2. Kexin Chen & Hoi Ying Wong, 2024. "Duality in optimal consumption–investment problems with alternative data," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 709-758, July.
    3. Jan Obłój & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2021. "In memoriam: Mark H. A. Davis and his contributions to mathematical finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1099-1110, October.
    4. Lleo, Sébastien & Runggaldier, Wolfgang J., 2024. "On the separation of estimation and control in risk-sensitive investment problems under incomplete observation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 200-214.
    5. Mark H.A. Davis & Sébastien Lleo, 2021. "Risk‐sensitive benchmarked asset management with expert forecasts," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1162-1189, October.
    6. Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Ralf Wunderlich, 2018. "Asymptotic Filter Behavior for High-Frequency Expert Opinions in a Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1812.03453, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    7. Kexin Chen & Hoi Ying Wong, 2022. "Duality in optimal consumption--investment problems with alternative data," Papers 2210.08422, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    8. S'ebastien Lleo & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2023. "On the Separation of Estimation and Control in Risk-Sensitive Investment Problems under Incomplete Observation," Papers 2304.08910, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral finance; Black-Litterman; Expert opinions; Kalman filter; Portfolio selection; Stochastic control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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