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Can An ”Estimation Factor” Help Explain Cross-Sectional Returns?

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Abstract

We show in a theoretical model that the expected excess return on any asset depends on its covariance not only with the market portfolio, but also with changes in the representative agent’s estimate. In the empirical specification, this ”estimation factor” is based on realized growth in aggregate dividends and earnings. We test our model by using GMM and compare it to the Fama-French model. The results suggest that the estimation factor is priced. Moreover, the Hansen-Jagannathan distances show that the conditional and static versions of our derived model perform on a par with the corresponding versions of the Fama-French model.

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  • Lundtofte, Frederik, 2005. "Can An ”Estimation Factor” Help Explain Cross-Sectional Returns?," Working Papers 2005:18, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_018
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    Cited by:

    1. David Feldman, 2007. "Incomplete information equilibria: Separation theorems and other myths," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 119-149, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    learning; incomplete information; equilibrium; factor pricing models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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