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Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025

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  • Linz, Marco

Abstract

A Delphi panel of aviation experts is used to anticipate probable and wildcard scenarios on the future of aviation in 2025. According to the experts’ estimations, the passenger, business aviation, and air cargo segments will be faced with 27 probable high-impact developments. These include long-haul growth primarily linked to emerging countries, a number of substitution threats, liberalization and deregulation, increasing industry vulnerability, finiteness of fossil fuels, and emissions trading. The emergence of low-cost cargo carriers and air cargo substitution by sea transportation were identified as potential surprises. Several wildcard scenarios were identified such as natural catastrophes, era of virtual communication, and home-producing “fabbing†society.

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  • Linz, Marco, 2012. "Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 28-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:22:y:2012:i:c:p:28-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2012.01.006
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    3. Das, Deepjyoti & Sharma, Somesh Kumar & Parti, Raman & Singh, Jagroop, 2016. "Analyzing the effect of aviation infrastructure over aviation fuel consumption reduction," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-100.
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    9. Schmalz, Ulrike & Paul, Annika & Gissibl, Viola, 2021. "An explorative study of corporate travellers’ perception at a German airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Fichert, Frank & Kirschnerová, Ivana & Tomová, Anna, 2020. "Business models in business aviation – An empirical analysis with a focus on Air Charter Companies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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