IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v90y2020icp52-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future local passenger transport system scenarios and implications for policy and practice

Author

Listed:
  • Enoch, M.P.
  • Cross, R.
  • Potter, N.
  • Davidson, C.
  • Taylor, S.
  • Brown, R.
  • Huang, H.
  • Parsons, J.
  • Tucker, S.
  • Wynne, E.
  • Grieg, D.
  • Campbell, G.
  • Jackson, A.
  • Potter, S.

Abstract

The world is rapidly changing and the future is uncertain, yet until recently the dominant assumption of the local passenger transport community has been that the existing modal landscape of cars, buses and taxis will remain much as it is now. Such a view is now shifting however, with decision makers now appreciating the need to understand the implications of potentially radical changes in the technological, political, economic, social and environmental spheres. Accordingly, in August 2015 the Public Transport 2045 study was commissioned to consider how different local public transport futures might affect society over the next 30-years, and at how governments might best respond.

Suggested Citation

  • Enoch, M.P. & Cross, R. & Potter, N. & Davidson, C. & Taylor, S. & Brown, R. & Huang, H. & Parsons, J. & Tucker, S. & Wynne, E. & Grieg, D. & Campbell, G. & Jackson, A. & Potter, S., 2020. "Future local passenger transport system scenarios and implications for policy and practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 52-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:90:y:2020:i:c:p:52-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.02.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X19305189
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.02.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judd Cramer & Alan B. Krueger, 2016. "Disruptive Change in the Taxi Business: The Case of Uber," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 177-182, May.
    2. Bansal, Prateek & Kockelman, Kara M., 2017. "Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-63.
    3. Juho Hamari & Mimmi Sjöklint & Antti Ukkonen, 2016. "The sharing economy: Why people participate in collaborative consumption," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 67(9), pages 2047-2059, September.
    4. Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2018. "How urban density, network topology and socio-economy influence public transport ridership: Empirical evidence from 48 European metropolitan areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 50-63.
    5. Edelenbosch, O.Y. & Kermeli, K. & Crijns-Graus, W. & Worrell, E. & Bibas, R. & Fais, B. & Fujimori, S. & Kyle, P. & Sano, F. & van Vuuren, D.P., 2017. "Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 701-710.
    6. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    7. Gecchelin, Tommaso & Webb, Jeremy, 2019. "Modular dynamic ride-sharing transport systems," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 111-117.
    8. Linz, Marco, 2012. "Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 28-35.
    9. Docherty, Iain & Marsden, Greg & Anable, Jillian, 2018. "The governance of smart mobility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 114-125.
    10. Webb, Jeremy, 2019. "The future of transport: Literature review and overview," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-6.
    11. Shaheen, Susan PhD & Totte, Hannah & Stocker, Adam, 2018. "Future of Mobility White Paper," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt68g2h1qv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    12. Gordon Stokes, 2013. "The Prospects for Future Levels of Car Access and Use," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 360-375, May.
    13. Alexa Delbosc & Graham Currie, 2013. "Causes of Youth Licensing Decline: A Synthesis of Evidence," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 271-290, May.
    14. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    15. Bood, Robert & Postma, Theo, 1997. "Strategic learning with scenarios," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 633-647, December.
    16. Sperling, Daniel & Gordon, Deborah, 2009. "Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195376647.
    17. Canitez, Fatih, 2019. "Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: A socio-technical transition perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 319-329.
    18. Scheiner, Joachim, 2014. "Gendered key events in the life course: effects on changes in travel mode choice over time," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 47-60.
    19. Smith, Göran & Sochor, Jana & Karlsson, I.C. MariAnne, 2018. "Mobility as a Service: Development scenarios and implications for public transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 592-599.
    20. Nelson, John D. & Mulley, Corinne, 2013. "The impact of the application of new technology on public transport service provision and the passenger experience: A focus on implementation in Australia," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 300-308.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Russo & Giuseppe Fortugno & Marco Merante & Domenica Savia Pellicanò & Maria Rosaria Trecozzi, 2021. "Updating National Air Passenger Demand from Traffic Counts: The Case of a Secondary Airport in an Underdeveloped Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Wang, Song & Li, Zhixia & Wang, Yi & Wyatt, Daniel Aaron, 2024. "How effective is automated vehicle education? – A Kentucky case study revealing the dynamic nature of education effectiveness," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 140-157.
    3. Qianli Zhang & Haijun Mao, 2022. "An Integrated Method for Locating Logistic Centers in a Rural Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Rita Prior Filipe & Andrew Heath & Nick McCullen, 2022. "The Path to Sustainable and Equitable Mobility: Defining a Stakeholder-Informed Transportation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Grażyna Rosa, 2021. "Passenger Preferences in Rail Transport in Poland as Regards Travelling Time and Cost," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Zhang, Li & Liu, Zhongshan & Yu, Lan & Fang, Ke & Yao, Baozhen & Yu, Bin, 2022. "Routing optimization of shared autonomous electric vehicles under uncertain travel time and uncertain service time," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. David Milesi-Gaches, 2021. "Did research address the pandemic, epidemic or infectious risk in public transport scenarios? A systematic review to rethink future environmental implications for mobility [La recherche a-t-elle ab," Working Papers hal-03494239, HAL.
    8. Enoch, Marcus & Potter, Stephen, 2023. "MaaS (Mobility as a Service) market futures explored," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 31-40.
    9. Suleiman Hassan Otuoze & Dexter V. L. Hunt & Ian Jefferson, 2021. "Neural Network Approach to Modelling Transport System Resilience for Major Cities: Case Studies of Lagos and Kano (Nigeria)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Shaojie Liu & Jing Teng & Yue Gong, 2020. "Extraction Method and Integration Framework for Perception Features of Public Opinion in Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Min-ho Suh & Minjoong Jeong, 2022. "Development of Bus Routes Reorganization Support Software Using the Naïve Bayes Classification Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.
    12. Antonio Martínez Raya & Víctor M. González-Sánchez, 2021. "Efficiency and Sustainability of Regional Aviation on Insular Territories of the European Union: A Case Study of Public Service Obligations on Scheduled Air Routes among the Balearic Islands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-31, April.
    13. Haarstad, Håvard & Sareen, Siddharth & Kandt, Jens & Coenen, Lars & Cook, Matthew, 2022. "Beyond automobility? Lock-in of past failures in low-carbon urban mobility innovations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Webb, Jeremy, 2019. "The future of transport: Literature review and overview," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-6.
    2. Delbosc, Alexa & Nakanishi, Hitomi, 2017. "A life course perspective on the travel of Australian millennials," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 319-336.
    3. Groth, Sören, 2019. "Multimodal divide: Reproduction of transport poverty in smart mobility trends," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 56-71.
    4. Greg Marsden & Noreen C. McDonald, 2019. "Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1075-1092, August.
    5. Pangbourne, Kate & Mladenović, Miloš N. & Stead, Dominic & Milakis, Dimitris, 2020. "Questioning mobility as a service: Unanticipated implications for society and governance," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 35-49.
    6. Devon McAslan & Farah Najar Arevalo & David A. King & Thaddeus R. Miller, 2021. "Pilot project purgatory? Assessing automated vehicle pilot projects in U.S. cities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Lee, Junmin & Kim, Keungoui & Kim, Jiyong & Hwang, Junseok, 2022. "The relationship between shared mobility and regulation in South Korea: A system dynamics approach from the socio-technical transitions perspective," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Mao, Wei & Shepherd, Simon & Harrison, Gillian & Xu, Meng, 2024. "Autonomous vehicle market development in Beijing: A system dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    9. Hossain, Mokter & Mozahem, Najib Ali, 2022. "Drivers’ perceptions of the sharing economy for transport services," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    10. Caroline Bayart & N. Havet & Patrick Bonnel & Louafi Bouzouina, 2019. "Young people and the private car: a love-hate relationship," Post-Print hal-02163268, HAL.
    11. Wang, Yunshi & Teter, Jacob & Sperling, Daniel, 2011. "China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3296-3306, June.
    12. Teoh, Roger & Anciaes, Paulo & Jones, Peter, 2020. "Urban mobility transitions through GDP growth: Policy choices facing cities in developing countries," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Hirschhorn, Fabio & Paulsson, Alexander & Sørensen, Claus H. & Veeneman, Wijnand, 2019. "Public transport regimes and mobility as a service: Governance approaches in Amsterdam, Birmingham, and Helsinki," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 178-191.
    14. Lyons, Glenn & Hammond, Paul & Mackay, Kate, 2019. "The importance of user perspective in the evolution of MaaS," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 22-36.
    15. Iva Bojic & Dániel Kondor & Wei Tu & Ke Mai & Paolo Santi & Carlo Ratti, 2021. "Identifying the Potential for Partial Integration of Private and Public Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
    16. Lopez-Carreiro, Iria & Monzon, Andres & Lopez, Elena & Lopez-Lambas, Maria Eugenia, 2020. "Urban mobility in the digital era: An exploration of travellers' expectations of MaaS mobile-technologies," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Jagienka Rześny-Cieplińska & Agnieszka Szmelter-Jarosz, 2019. "Assessment of the Crowd Logistics Solutions—The Stakeholders’ Analysis Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-26, September.
    18. Alejandro Tirachini, 2020. "Ride-hailing, travel behaviour and sustainable mobility: an international review," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 2011-2047, August.
    19. Smith, Göran & Sørensen, Claus Hedegaard, 2023. "Public-private MaaS: Unchallenged assumptions and issues of conflict in Sweden," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    20. Rong, Ke & Luo, Yining, 2023. "Toward born sharing: The sharing economy evolution enabled by the digital ecosystems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:90:y:2020:i:c:p:52-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.