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What comes next after recession? – Airline industry scenarios and potential end games

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  • Franke, Markus
  • John, Florian

Abstract

While airline managers learned lessons from the 2001/2003 “double dip†economic crisis, the post 2008 downturn has been more extreme. Airlines reacted quickly in 2008 and adjusted capacities and cost levels but recovery in profits has been slow for many airlines. The dynamics of the downturn has enlarged the gap between successful and less successful business models, and fostered shakeouts of the latter. Furthermore, the occurrence of new business models has accelerated. In 2001, it was the European continental low cost model; this time, we may see new attempts to change the rules of the game in international long-haul traffic. Long-term non-cyclical trends such as deregulation or consolidation will also shape potential end game scenarios, We briefly examine the differences between the last (2001/03) and the recent (2008/09) aviation crises, and evaluate the impact on different types of carriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Franke, Markus & John, Florian, 2011. "What comes next after recession? – Airline industry scenarios and potential end games," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 19-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:17:y:2011:i:1:p:19-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2010.10.005
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