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On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables

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  • Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
  • Bar-Yam, Yaneer
  • Cirillo, Pasquale

Abstract

We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive “evidence based” empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Taleb, Nassim Nicholas & Bar-Yam, Yaneer & Cirillo, Pasquale, 2022. "On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 413-422.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:38:y:2022:i:2:p:413-422
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008
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