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A Simple and Flexible Dynamic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment Growth: The Canada‐United States Relationship in the Context of Free Trade

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  • Peter J. Buckley
  • Jeremy Clegg
  • Nicolas Forsans
  • Kevin T. Reilly

Abstract

This paper asks a simple question: Did Wilfred Laurier's dream of free trade with the United States, when it came to fruition in 1989, also impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) into Canada by US multinationals? This paper argues that the customary static econometric approach found in the FDI literature, along with the assumption that policy changes influence only the intercept term, are inadequate to address the question. Instead we introduce an innovative dynamic framework to support the testing of hypotheses on behavioural changes in the variables using a structural break framework. A key conclusion is that prior to signing the free trade agreement US FDI responded only to current growth in the Canadian economy, in a unitary fashion, and current exchange rate shifts. This can be described as a static relationship. The implementation of the free trade agreements between Canada and the USA increased the responsiveness of US FDI to growth in the Canadian economy by a factor greater than two. Furthermore, dynamics are found in the form of a lagged effect for changes in the growth in the Canadian economy and interest rate differentials. These conclusions challenge the dominant view, including that in official policy circles, that the free trade agreement had no impact on US firms’ FDI decisions in Canada.

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  • Peter J. Buckley & Jeremy Clegg & Nicolas Forsans & Kevin T. Reilly, 2007. "A Simple and Flexible Dynamic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment Growth: The Canada‐United States Relationship in the Context of Free Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 267-291, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:2:p:267-291
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.00882.x
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    2. Ghazalian, Pascal L. & Cardwell, Ryan T., 2010. "Multilateral Trade Liberalisation and FDI: An Analytical Framework for the Implications for Trading Blocs," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Ahmed, Saira & Ahmed, Zafar & Sohail, Safder & Sarfraz, Irfan & Shafqat, Mohammad & Mamoon, Dawood & Saadia, Hissam, 2012. "Lessons Drawn From Pakistan-Sri Lanka FTA," MPRA Paper 81488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dorothee J. Feils & Manzur Rahman, 2011. "The Impact of Regional Integration on Insider and Outsider FDI," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 41-63, February.
    5. My Duong & Mark J. Holmes & Anna Strutt & Steven Lim, 2019. "Effects of Trade Agreements and Foreign Direct Investment on Trade: Evidence from Vietnam," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 116-126.
    6. Emmanuel Cleeve, 2007. "Japanese Foreign Direct Investment in the UK Electronic Industry: The Eclectic Approach," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 183-200, April.
    7. Lihui Wang & Zhihong Liu & Huailong Shi, 2022. "The Impact of the Pilot Free Trade Zone on Regional Financial Development," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 154-184, September.
    8. Arun, Korhan & Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı, 2017. "Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Intellectual Property, Patents and R&D," MPRA Paper 80470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Andrew R. Blair, 2017. "United States Manufacturing Direct Investment and Trade: The Case of Canada and Mexico under NAFTA and Earlier Trade Liberalization Measures," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 7, pages 50-65, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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