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A generalized non-linear forecasting model for limited overs international cricket

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  • Asif, M.
  • McHale, I.G.

Abstract

This paper proposes a generalized non-linear forecasting model (GNLM) for forecasting the number of runs remaining to be scored in an innings of cricket. The proposed model takes into account the numbers of overs left and wickets lost. The GNLFM can be used to build a model for any format of limited-overs international cricket. However, the purpose of its use in this paper is for building a forecasting model for projecting second innings total runs in Twenty-20 International cricket. Our model makes it possible to estimate the runs differential of the two competing teams whilst the match is in progress. The runs differential can be used not only to gauge the closeness of a game, but also to estimate the ratings of cricket teams that take into account the margin of victory. Furthermore, the well-known original Duckworth/Lewis (DL) model and the McHale/Asif version of it for revising targets in interrupted matches are special cases of our proposed generalized non-linear forecasting model.

Suggested Citation

  • Asif, M. & McHale, I.G., 2019. "A generalized non-linear forecasting model for limited overs international cricket," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 634-640.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:2:p:634-640
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven E. Stern, 2011. "Moderated paired comparisons: a generalized Bradley–Terry model for continuous data using a discontinuous penalized likelihood function," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(3), pages 397-415, May.
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    3. McHale, Ian G. & Asif, Muhammad, 2013. "A modified Duckworth–Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 353-362.
    4. Steven E Stern, 2016. "The Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method: extending the Duckworth-Lewis methodology to deal with modern scoring rates," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(12), pages 1469-1480, December.
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    7. Asif, Muhammad & McHale, Ian G., 2016. "In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day International cricket: A dynamic logistic regression model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 34-43.
    8. F C Duckworth & A J Lewis, 2004. "A successful operational research intervention in one-day cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(7), pages 749-759, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.

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